JTWC Patrick Hoareau | Météo.Cyclones.World@PH

Météo.Cyclones.World@PH

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South Indian Ocean: Invest 99S will be closely monitored next several days - 01/12/2021 - 00:05

11/1624UTC. ASCAT REVEALED A WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1500KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF DIÉGO GARCIA AT 11/18UTC. 2021 JAN 11 1945UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN...

Remnants of 08S(DANILO), Invest 98S & 99S : Update at 11/06utc - 01/11/2021 - 12:00

REMNANTS OF 08S(DANILO). VERY WEAK SYSTEM LOCATED APPRX 65KM TO MAURITIUS AT 11/06UTC. 2021 JAN 11 0735UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN REMNANTS OF #08S #DANILO UPDATE As of 06:00 UTC Jan 11, 2021:...

Remnants of 08S(DANILO) and Invest 98S: Update at 10/06utc - 01/10/2021 - 11:45

REMNANTS OF 08S(DANILO): VERY WEAK SYSTEM.LOCATED APPRX 275 ENE OF MAURITIUS AND 500KM ENE OF RÉUNION. STILL BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION WHICH ARE UNLIKELY. 2021 JAN 10...

Remnants of 08S(DANILO) and Invest 98S: Update at 09/06utc - 01/09/2021 - 11:40

THE TWO SYSTEMS ARE 3930KM APART. 09/06UTC.REMNANTS OF DANILO(08S): LOCATED APPRX 280KM NNE OF RODRIGUES, 715KM ENE OF MAURITIUS AND 940KM ENE OF RÉUNION.BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF...

08S(DANILO) Final warning issued but the system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration - 01/09/2021 - 07:45

08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS/MAURITIUS HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 24 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING FROM JTWC. THE SYSTEM WILL BE...

Weakened 08S(DANILO) forecast to re-intensify and approach Mauritius/Réunion islands, 08/15utc update - 01/08/2021 - 18:31

AS OUTFLOW SLOWLY IMPROVES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS BY 48H. 08S (DANILO),LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT...

DANILO(08S): 550km NE of Rodrigues, slightly intensified, approaching the Mascarenes, 08/03utc update - 01/08/2021 - 07:45

08S(DANILO) CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING AND CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION. 08S(DANILO) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN...

DANILO(08S) : forecast to track very close or over Mauritius shortly after 72h with 40knots sustained winds - 01/07/2021 - 19:10

BY 48H, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE EAST, ALLOWING 08S(DANILO) TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS MAURITIUS. 08S(DANILO)LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1435KM...

DANILO(08S) is slowly approaching the Mascarenes, slightly improved satellite signature, 07/03utc update - 01/07/2021 - 07:25

TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH 48H. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS AT 24H BEFORE WEAKENING TO 35 KNOTS AT 48H. AFTER 48H, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN...

DANILO(08S) is forecast to approach the Mascarene islands as a minimal TC, update at 06/15UTC - 01/06/2021 - 19:06

TC 08S WILL MOVE WESTWARD UP TO 48H THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO...

DANILO(08S) : forecast to approach the Mascarane islands next 5 days as a weak system, remnants of 09P upgraded to Low - 01/06/2021 - 07:00

TC 08S SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE HWRF SUGGESTS...

08S(DANILO) is forecast to approach the Mascarene islands next 5 days, intensity forecast down from previous warning - 01/05/2021 - 18:45

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) TO THE SOUTH WILL DRIVE 08S(DANILO) WESTWARD UP TO 72H THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY...

TC 08S(DANILO): has reached US/Category 1, Confidence in the track forecast is now high - 01/05/2021 - 08:00

OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN TURN SOUTHWESTWARD.BY 24H THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 96H.IN THE NEAR TERM TC DANILO...

TC 08S(DANILO): forecast to reach US/Category1 in 72 hours, moderate confidence in the JTWC forecast - 01/04/2021 - 19:00

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.BY 36H THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO PUSH THE SYSTEM TO A...

TC 08S(DANILO): confidence in the forecast is increasing, 04/03utc update - 01/04/2021 - 07:30

WARNING 10: THERE IS NOW MODERATE UNCERTAINTY WITH IMPROVED AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS AND A NEAR-COMPLETE FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF INVEST 93S, LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO...

TC 08S(DANILO) & Invest 93S: 370km apart, will merge in 36/48hours, still low confidence in the forecast track, 03/15utc update - 01/03/2021 - 18:58

OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, 93S IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO THE SOUTH OF TC 08S THEN WRAP TOWARDS TC 08S, ULTIMATELY MERGING INTO ONE SYSTEM BETWEEN 36/48H. DURING THIS PROCESS TC 08S, AS THE...

TC 08S(DANILO) is expected to make a sharp turn westward in 72h but confidence in the forecast remains low - 01/03/2021 - 13:25

TC 08S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT 55 KNOTS THROUGH 12H, BUT WEAKEN TO 45 KNOTS BY 48H AS THE CORE IS DISRUPTED BY INTERACTION AND ULTIMATE ABSORBTION OF INVEST 93S. AFTER THE SYSTEM REFORMS AND BEGINS...

Gulf of Carpentaria: TC 09P(IMOGEN) has formed but should be short-lived, Mornigton island reports 96km/h gust - 01/03/2021 - 13:03

TC 09P(IMOGEN) WARNING 1: NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION (THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS) TO A PEAK OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS IS LIKELY BEFORE THE EXPECTED LANDFALL JUST PRIOR 12H NORTH OF KARUMBA, BUT IS NOT CAPTURED BY...

Invest 97P is now TC 09P over the Gulf of Carpentaria. Warning 7 for TC 08S(DANILO) and Warning 1 for TC 09P will be posted near 03/0930UTC. - 01/03/2021 - 10:59

2021 JAN 03 0630UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN TC #08S #DANILO UPDATE As of 06:00 UTC Jan 03, 2021: Location: 11.7°S 73.5°E Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h) Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h) Minimum Central...

TC 08S(DANILO) warning 5, Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for Invest 97P, 02/21utc update - 01/03/2021 - 03:36

TC 08S: WARNING 5. INVEST 97P: UP-GRADED TO HIGH. INVEST 93S: DOWN-GRADED TO LOW. 2021 JAN 02 2330UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN TC #08S #DANILO WARNING 5 As of 18:00 UTC Jan 02, 2021: Location: 11.1°S...

TC 08S(DANILO) forecast to intensify significantly after 48h after kiiling off Invest 93S. Invest 97P still Medium in the GOC - 01/02/2021 - 19:23

2021 JAN 02 1309UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN TC #08S #DANILO WARNING 4 As of 12:00 UTC Jan 02, 2021: Location: 10.8°S 72.5°E Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h) Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h) Minimum Central...

DANILO(08S) and Invest 93S getting closer whereas Invest 97P is up-graded to Medium in the Gulf of Carpentaria - 01/02/2021 - 13:15

TC 08S(DANILO). WARNING 3: DUE TO THE VERY COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY SCENARIO AND GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. 2021 JAN 02...

08S(DANILO) potential Fujiwhara with Invest 93S, Invest 97P under watch in the Gulf of Carpentaria, 02/03UTC update - 01/02/2021 - 07:23

2021 JAN 02 0240UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN TC #08S #DANILO WARNING 2 As of 00:00 UTC Jan 02, 2021: Location: 10.8°S 72.0°E Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h) Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h) Minimum Central...

TC 08S(DANILO) will be interacting with Invest 93S and may absorb it, Invest 97P now on the map - 01/01/2021 - 23:11

2021 JAN 01 1855UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN TC #08S #DANILO UPDATE As of 18:00 UTC Jan 01, 2021: Location: 11.2°S 71.1°E Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h) Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h) Minimum Central...

South Indian: likely interaction between Invest 96S and Invest 93S, 01/06UTC update - 01/01/2021 - 12:50

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAY BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH INVEST 93S. 2021 JAN 01...

South Indian Ocean: two Suspect Areas under close watch, TCFA issued for Invest 93S, Update 31/00UTC - 12/31/2020 - 07:04

2020 DEC 31 03UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN INVEST #93S UPDATE: TCFA As of 00:00 UTC Dec 31, 2020: Location: 13.0°S 84.6°E Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h) Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h) Minimum Central...

South Indian Ocean: TC 07S( CHALANE) made landfall over MOZ, Invest 93S & 96S still under watch - 12/30/2020 - 11:06

South Indian Ocean: TC 07S( CHALANE) close to Beira/MOZ, 30/00UTC Updates for Invest 93S & 96S - 12/30/2020 - 07:07

ANIMATION: TC 07S(CHALANE) IS DIRECTLY IMPACTING ON THE BEIRA AREA. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.

TC 07S(CHALANE) is bearing down on Beira/MOZ with top gusts nearing 150km/h close to the center, 29/18UTC Update - 12/30/2020 - 01:27

TC 07S (CHALANE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY285 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BEIRA/MOZAMBIQUE HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.TC 07S HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL...

South Indian Ocean: TC 07S( CHALANE) and two other Suspect Areas under watch, update 29/18UTC - 12/29/2020 - 23:36

2020 DEC 29 1915UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN TC #07S #CHALANE UPDATE As of 18:00 UTC Dec 29, 2020: Location: 19.7°S 37.7°E Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h) Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h) Minimum Central...