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Southern Hemisphere: very busy: 5 systems being monitored! 30/15utc updates


JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 15P(ANA). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 15P, INVEST 94P, INVEST 99P AND INVEST 98S.


JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 15P(ANA). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 15P, INVEST 94P, INVEST 99P AND INVEST 98S.
JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 15P(ANA). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 15P, INVEST 94P, INVEST 99P AND INVEST 98S.
2021 JAN 30 1615UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #15P #ANA #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
WARNING 3/UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC Jan 30, 2021:
Location: 16.8°S 177.4°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt (95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt (120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 986 mb
INTENSIFYING
15P (ANA), LOCATED AT 30/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 180KM NORTHWEST OF SUVA/FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST #94P  #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
UPDATE/TCFA
As of 12:00 UTC Jan 30, 2021:
Location: 13.8°S 150.0°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt (55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt (75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: HIGH
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST #99P  #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
TCFA/UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC Jan 30, 2021:
Location: 11.9°S 169.3°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt (55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt (75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure:  998 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: UP-GRADED TO HIGH.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST #98S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TCFA/UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC Jan 30, 2021:
Location: 18.5°S 124.2°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt (55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt (75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: UP-GRADED TO HIGH.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REMNANTS #13S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC Jan 30, 2021:
Location: 15.5°S 69.5°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: LOW.
 
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

15P(ANA). WARNING 3.FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TURNS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION TO THE EAST, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH LAND(VITI LEVU) SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. AFTER 24H, TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS) HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. AFTER 48H, TC 15P SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG WIND SHEAR (30-35 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY COOLER SEAS (26-27C). IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO COOL SEAS (26-23C) AND INTENSITY SHOULD FALL BELOW 35KNOTS BY 120H.
15P(ANA). WARNING 3.FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TURNS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION TO THE EAST, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH LAND(VITI LEVU) SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. AFTER 24H, TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS) HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. AFTER 48H, TC 15P SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG WIND SHEAR (30-35 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY COOLER SEAS (26-27C). IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO COOL SEAS (26-23C) AND INTENSITY SHOULD FALL BELOW 35KNOTS BY 120H.

15P(ANA). 30/1610UTC.ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A PARTIAL 300830UTC ASCAT- A IMAGE AND 30/12UTC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM VIWA ISLAND (91670) AND RAKIRAKI (91669) SUPPORT THE INITIAL POSITION AND INDICATE 35-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. ADDITIONALLY, RAKIRAKI IS REPORTING A SLP OF 989.3MB, WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 45 KNOTS.
15P(ANA). 30/1610UTC.ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A PARTIAL 300830UTC ASCAT- A IMAGE AND 30/12UTC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM VIWA ISLAND (91670) AND RAKIRAKI (91669) SUPPORT THE INITIAL POSITION AND INDICATE 35-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. ADDITIONALLY, RAKIRAKI IS REPORTING A SLP OF 989.3MB, WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 45 KNOTS.

15P(ANA). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72H LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A 280KM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT 72H.
15P(ANA). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72H LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A 280KM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT 72H.

INVEST 94P. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 30/17UTC.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301406UTC AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A PARTIAL 301037UTC ASCAT-C PASS INDICATES A TIGHT LLCC WITH 25-30KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
INVEST 94P. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 30/17UTC.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301406UTC AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A PARTIAL 301037UTC ASCAT-C PASS INDICATES A TIGHT LLCC WITH 25-30KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

INVEST 94P. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INVEST 94P. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


INVEST 99P. 30/1337UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTS A SMALL BUT WELL SIGNED SYSTEM.
INVEST 99P. 30/1337UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTS A SMALL BUT WELL SIGNED SYSTEM.


INVEST 98S. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED FOR THE STILL OVER-LAND SYSTEM. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300838UTC SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
INVEST 98S. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED FOR THE STILL OVER-LAND SYSTEM. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300838UTC SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT.

INVEST 98S. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24- 30 HOURS AND DEVELOP QUICKLY ONCE OVER WATER.
INVEST 98S. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24- 30 HOURS AND DEVELOP QUICKLY ONCE OVER WATER.

REMNANTS OF 13S(NONAME). 30/16UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT DEPICT SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION AT THE MOMENT.
REMNANTS OF 13S(NONAME). 30/16UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT DEPICT SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION AT THE MOMENT.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Saturday, January 30th 2021 à 21:15
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