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Western Pacific: TS 19W(CHANTHU) slow-moving next 24hours//Atlantic: TS 14L(NICHOLAS) made landfall at Hurricane/CAT 1 now over-land,14/09utc




TS 19W(CHANTHU). WARNING 33 ISSUED AT 14/09UTC.SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS CHANTU IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN THE COL. AFTERWARD, THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN, ALLOWING THE SECONDARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST TO ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ), CROSSING NORTHERN HONSHU NEAR MISAWA AND EXITING INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN SHORTLY AFTER 96H. THE MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS, EXACERBATED BY FURTHER COOLING OF THE SSTS AS THE QS SYSTEM GENERATES UPWELLING OF DEEP COLD WATER, WILL PROMOTE STEADY WEAKENING DOWN TO 35 KNOTS BY 48H. AFTERWARD, THE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COLDER SSTS OF THE SOJ WILL FURTHER WEAKEN IT TO 30KNOTS BY 96H AS IT BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL.
TS 19W(CHANTHU). WARNING 33 ISSUED AT 14/09UTC.SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS CHANTU IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN THE COL. AFTERWARD, THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN, ALLOWING THE SECONDARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST TO ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ), CROSSING NORTHERN HONSHU NEAR MISAWA AND EXITING INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN SHORTLY AFTER 96H. THE MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS, EXACERBATED BY FURTHER COOLING OF THE SSTS AS THE QS SYSTEM GENERATES UPWELLING OF DEEP COLD WATER, WILL PROMOTE STEADY WEAKENING DOWN TO 35 KNOTS BY 48H. AFTERWARD, THE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COLDER SSTS OF THE SOJ WILL FURTHER WEAKEN IT TO 30KNOTS BY 96H AS IT BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL.
1921090506 123N1397E  15
1921090512 126N1395E  20
1921090518 130N1389E  20
1921090600 135N1385E  20
1921090606 141N1382E  25
1921090612 148N1379E  35
1921090618 152N1373E  45
1921090700 156N1366E  50
1921090706 161N1357E  70
1921090712 163N1346E  95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091212 263N1227E  95
1921091218 275N1232E  90
1921091300 290N1236E  85
1921091306 307N1234E  75
1921091312 310N1234E  65
1921091318 311N1236E  55
1921091400 313N1238E  50
1921091406 307N1243E  45
NNNN

Western Pacific: TS 19W(CHANTHU) slow-moving next 24hours//Atlantic: TS 14L(NICHOLAS) made landfall at Hurricane/CAT 1 now over-land,14/09utc


TS 19W(CHANTHU).SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH THE REMAINING ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCC SEEN IN MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 140230Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS PEAK WIND BARBS OF 40 KNOTS. THE OVERALL MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS, ARE DUE TO THE LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND MEDIUM TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH ARE OFFSET BY THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC.
TS 19W(CHANTHU).SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH THE REMAINING ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCC SEEN IN MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 140230Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS PEAK WIND BARBS OF 40 KNOTS. THE OVERALL MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS, ARE DUE TO THE LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND MEDIUM TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH ARE OFFSET BY THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC.


TS 19W(CHANTHU). MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM MOTION AND DURATION IN THE COL AREA, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
TS 19W(CHANTHU). MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM MOTION AND DURATION IN THE COL AREA, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


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ATLANTIC. TS 14L(NICHOLAS). WARNING 9 ISSUED AT 14/09UTC.
ATLANTIC. TS 14L(NICHOLAS). WARNING 9 ISSUED AT 14/09UTC.
1421091012 170N 890W  15
1421091018 171N 897W  15
1421091100 173N 906W  15
1421091106 175N 915W  20
1421091112 180N 924W  20
1421091118 186N 932W  20
1421091200 191N 935W  25
1421091206 198N 940W  30
1421091212 210N 952W  35
1421091218 224N 956W  35
1421091300 239N 961W  40
1421091306 251N 965W  50
1421091312 254N 969W  50
1421091318 269N 965W  55
1421091400 281N 960W  65
1421091406 288N 957W  60

TS 14L(NICHOLAS). GUIDANCE.
TS 14L(NICHOLAS). GUIDANCE.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Tuesday, September 14th 2021 à 14:19
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