CLICK ON THE IMAGERIES BELOW TO GET THEM ENLARGED
JWTC IS ISSUING 6 HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETIN ON 25W AND ON 27W. 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON 02S. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON THE REMNANTS OF 26W.
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: TY 25W(MAN-YI). 15/00UTC ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 70 KNOTS/CAT 1 US: + 25 KNOTS OVER 24 HOURS
2524111318 114N1395E 40
2524111400 109N1381E 45
2524111406 106N1366E 50
2524111412 104N1350E 55
2524111418 104N1336E 60
2524111500 105N1320E 70
2524111400 109N1381E 45
2524111406 106N1366E 50
2524111412 104N1350E 55
2524111418 104N1336E 60
2524111500 105N1320E 70
WARNING 25 ISSUED AT 15/03UTC
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS INDICATED BY OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND TIGHTENING WRAP OF DEEPENING RAIN BANDS FEEDING INTO INTO A RAGGED 20-NM BANDING EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND CONSISTENT WITH A NEWLY-FORMED EYE. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH VERY WARM SST IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA, LOW VWS, AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW.
TC Warning Graphic
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MAN-YI WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL LUZON 70NM SOUTHWEST OF CASIGURAN AROUND TAU 54, TRACK ACROSS LUZON THEN EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) VIA LINGAYEN GULF AROUND TAU 60. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL GRADUAL THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 125KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION WILL REDUCE THE SYSTEM TO 60KTS BY TAU 72 AFTER IT EXITS INTO THE SCS. COOLING SSTS IN THE SCS, INCREASING VWS AND A COLD NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL FURTHER ERODE THE SYSTEM TO 35KTS BY TAU 120.
Model Diagnostic Plot
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD TO A MERE 92NM BY TAU 72, THEN TO JUST 185NM BY TAU 120. HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH LAND PASSAGE THERE IS ONLY OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.
15/0230UTC SATELLITE ANALYSIS
TPPN12 PGTW 150309
A. TYPHOON 25W (MAN-YI)
B. 15/0230Z
C. 10.63N
D. 131.30E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS AN E# OF 4.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A DT
OF 5.5. MET YIELDS 4.0. PT YIELDS 4.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
EL-NAZLY
A. TYPHOON 25W (MAN-YI)
B. 15/0230Z
C. 10.63N
D. 131.30E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS AN E# OF 4.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A DT
OF 5.5. MET YIELDS 4.0. PT YIELDS 4.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
EL-NAZLY
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: TY 27W(USAGI). 15/00UTC ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 70 KNOTS/CAT 1 US: - 60 KNOTS OVER 24 HOURS
2724111318 166N1240E 130
2724111400 172N1231E 130
2724111406 179N1221E 115
2724111412 188N1211E 55
2724111418 198N1205E 65
2724111500 205N1202E 70
2724111400 172N1231E 130
2724111406 179N1221E 115
2724111412 188N1211E 55
2724111418 198N1205E 65
2724111500 205N1202E 70
WARNING 17 ISSUED AT 15/03UTC
FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 20.5N 120.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 125 NM SOUTH OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING AS EVIDENCED BY
OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. TRANSVERSE
BANDING IS EVIDENT ALONG THE NORTHERN RIM, AN INDICATION OF HIGH
SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
A DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM THE
TAIWAN CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70KTS IS
ALSO
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT 6-HR
INTENSIFICATION IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH COOL (26-27C) SST, MODERATE TO STRONG
VWS, AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 142330Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
VWS: 20-25 KTS
SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY USAGI WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND ARC TO THE
RIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR AND
MAKE LANDFALL NEAR KAOHSIUNG AROUND TAU 24. AFTERWARD, A SECONDARY
STR BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST NEAR HAINAN WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING
AND SLOW DOWN THE STORM MOTION, RENDERING THE CYCLONE IN A
QUASI-STATIONARY MODE IN THE COL AREA BETWEEN THE TWO STRS AND OVER
THE RUGGED SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAIN RIDGES OF TAIWAN. COOL SSTS,
INCREASING VWS, THEN LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
TAIWAN WILL SLOWLY THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY
TAU 48, LIKELY SOONER.
6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 20.5N 120.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 125 NM SOUTH OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING AS EVIDENCED BY
OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. TRANSVERSE
BANDING IS EVIDENT ALONG THE NORTHERN RIM, AN INDICATION OF HIGH
SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
A DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM THE
TAIWAN CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70KTS IS
ALSO
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT 6-HR
INTENSIFICATION IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH COOL (26-27C) SST, MODERATE TO STRONG
VWS, AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 142330Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
VWS: 20-25 KTS
SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY USAGI WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND ARC TO THE
RIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR AND
MAKE LANDFALL NEAR KAOHSIUNG AROUND TAU 24. AFTERWARD, A SECONDARY
STR BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST NEAR HAINAN WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING
AND SLOW DOWN THE STORM MOTION, RENDERING THE CYCLONE IN A
QUASI-STATIONARY MODE IN THE COL AREA BETWEEN THE TWO STRS AND OVER
THE RUGGED SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAIN RIDGES OF TAIWAN. COOL SSTS,
INCREASING VWS, THEN LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
TAIWAN WILL SLOWLY THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY
TAU 48, LIKELY SOONER.
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED
Model Diagnostic Plot
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT UP
TO TAU 24; AFTERWARD, A FEW MODELS TRACK THE VORTEX NORTHEASTWARD
AND THE REST SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE SECONDARY STR, LENDING
OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS
THAT ARE LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
TO TAU 24; AFTERWARD, A FEW MODELS TRACK THE VORTEX NORTHEASTWARD
AND THE REST SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE SECONDARY STR, LENDING
OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS
THAT ARE LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
15/0230UTC SATELLITE ANALYSIS
TPPN13 PGTW 150306
A. TYPHOON 27W (USAGI)
B. 15/0230Z
C. 21.12N
D. 120.24E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.5/4.5/W1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 44A/PBO LARGE CDO/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN MG YIELDS A DT
OF 4.0. MET YIELDS 4.5. PT YIELDS 4.0. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
EL-NAZLY
A. TYPHOON 27W (USAGI)
B. 15/0230Z
C. 21.12N
D. 120.24E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.5/4.5/W1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 44A/PBO LARGE CDO/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN MG YIELDS A DT
OF 4.0. MET YIELDS 4.5. PT YIELDS 4.0. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
EL-NAZLY
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 02S(BHEKI). 15/00UTC ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 60 KNOTS: + 25 KNOTS OVER 24 HOURS
0224111300 94S 775E 30
0224111306 95S 770E 30
0224111312 96S 768E 30
0224111318 97S 766E 30
0224111400 98S 764E 35
0224111406 100S 763E 35
0224111412 103S 762E 40
0224111418 107S 761E 50
0224111500 110S 760E 60
0224111306 95S 770E 30
0224111312 96S 768E 30
0224111318 97S 766E 30
0224111400 98S 764E 35
0224111406 100S 763E 35
0224111412 103S 762E 40
0224111418 107S 761E 50
0224111500 110S 760E 60
WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 15/03UTC
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IMAGERY FROM A 150036Z SSMIS PASS DEPICT TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTING OVER A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES DISTRIBUTED WITHIN A RANGE FROM 45 KNOTS (DEMS DVORAK) TO 68 KNOTS (CIMSS D-PRINT). TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, SUPPORTED BY PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER AND A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN.
85 – 92 GHz Polarization-Corrected Brightness Temperature
TC Warning Graphic
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR, TOWARD A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD, CONTINUOUS RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF TC 02S AND GRADUALLY STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARD A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM, BUT PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. VWS IS EXPECTED TO DROP TOWARD MORE FAVORABLE VALUES AFTER TAU 24, ALLOWING FOR MORE PRONOUNCED INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. THEREAFTER, INCREASING WESTERLY VWS AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER ARE EXPECTED TO ARREST THE INTENSIFICATION TREND AND BEGIN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM.
Model Diagnostic Plot
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAVGEM POLEWARD OUTLIER, IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO AND ASSOCIATED TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THEREAFTER, SPREAD IN DIRECTION AND SPEED INCREASES DUE TO VARYING DEPICTIONS OF THE STEERING RIDGE EVOLUTION AND STORM STRUCTURE. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. NUMERICAL INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOLLOWED BY STEADY INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 24 AND WEAKENING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAFS AND HWRF INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION ABOVE THE CURRENT FORECAST BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 72, WHICH IS POSSIBLE IF SHEAR DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THAT OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE FAVORABLE. CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MEDIUM THROUGH TAU 120.
15/0230UTC SATELLITE ANALYSIS
TPXS10 PGTW 150310
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI)
B. 15/0230Z
C. 10.92S
D. 75.93E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 53A/PBO CLD MIN WDG/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED 46NM IN SHEARED
DENSE OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
EL-NAZLY
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI)
B. 15/0230Z
C. 10.92S
D. 75.93E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 53A/PBO CLD MIN WDG/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED 46NM IN SHEARED
DENSE OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
EL-NAZLY
