CLICK ON THE IMAGERIES BELOW TO GET THEM ENLARGED
JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETIN ON 27W AND ON 25W. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETIN ARE ISSUED ON 95S.
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: TY 27W(USAGI). 14/06UTC ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 115 KNOTS/CAT 4 US: + 40 KNOTS OVER 24 HOURS . ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY WAS 130 KNOTS/SUPER TYPHOON/CAT 4
2724111300 151N1278E 70
2724111306 156N1265E 75
2724111312 162N1253E 115
2724111318 166N1240E 130
2724111400 172N1231E 130
2724111406 179N1221E 115
2724111306 156N1265E 75
2724111312 162N1253E 115
2724111318 166N1240E 130
2724111400 172N1231E 130
2724111406 179N1221E 115
WARNING 14 ISSUED AT 14/09UTC
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 27W MADE LANDFALL AT 140500Z ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF LUZON, AS INDICATED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH THE EYE QUICKLY FILLING AND A MORE ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. A 140743Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION, WITH BANDING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE DEGRADED DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION. HOWEVER, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EVIDENT AS WELL WITH PRESSURE EVIDENT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. RADAR IMAGERY WAS UNAVAILABLE OVER LUZON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS CONSERVATIVELY ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE HEDGED ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
85 – 92 GHz Brightness Temperature
TC Warning Graphic
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 27W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE PRIMARILY TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. IMPORTANTLY, THE ECMWF 131800Z RUN INDICATES A SIMILAR SCENARIO AS GFS WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CHINA AND JET STRENGTH WINDS OVER OKINAWA. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK POLEWARD UNTIL IT WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY THEN IT SHOULD STALL AND EVENTUALLY TRACK EQUATORWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW.
LANDFALL AREA
Model Diagnostic Plot
MODEL DISCUSSION: BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (EPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES) CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MAJOR BIFURCATION IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE 140000Z EPS (ECMWF) ENSEMBLE FAVORS A RECURVE SCENARIO, WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD ISHIGAKI-JIMA, AND A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM TRACKING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE EPS ENSEMBLE ONLY SHOWS 20-30 PERCENT OF SOLUTIONS SURVIVING THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND JET STRENGTH WINDS OVER THE OKINAWA REGION. THE 140000Z GEFS (GFS) ENSEMBLE FAVORS A DISSIPATION SCENARIO, WITH THE LARGE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS EITHER TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD OR DISSIPATING THE VORTEX SOUTH OF TAIWAN. GEFS SHOWS ONLY 5 SOLUTIONS (15 PERCENT) RECURVING THE SYSTEM TOWARD ISHIGAKI-JIMA AND STALLING IT AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALSO REMAINS BIFURCATED, WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE FAVORING A GEFS-TYPE SOLUTION, WITH RAPID WEAKENING AND A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. ONLY THE ECMWF, EPS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN. THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FAVORS THE GEFS ENSEMBLE AND BULK OF DETERMINISTIC TRACKERS FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS. THE 131800Z ECMWF TRACKER HAD INDICATED A MINIMAL TYPHOON TRACKING CLOSE TO OKINAWA DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A JET OVER THE OKINAWA REGION. HOWEVER, THE 140000Z ECMWF TRACKER NOW SHOWS RAPID WEAKENING SOUTH OF OKINAWA, WITH A 34 KNOT INTENSITY AT TAU 48 OVER SOUTHERN TAIWAN. THE PRESENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BLOCK POLEWARD PROGRESSION AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED AT 500MB. IN FACT, THE 500MB FLOW IS EITHER HIGH ZONAL OR ANTICYCLONIC, WHICH DOESN'T FAVOR A RECURVE SCENARIO. THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL STALL, WHICH DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TRACK FURTHER POLEWARD WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL STALL QUICKER.
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)
Radius of Maximum Wind (RMW)
VIIRS EDR Infrared (IR) 750m 10.763μm : NEAR STAELLITE BEST SIGNATURE
14/0830UTC SATELLITE ANALYSIS
TPPN13 PGTW 140859
A. TYPHOON 27W (USAGI)
B. 14/0830Z
C. 18.15N
D. 121.97E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 22A/PBO SMALL CDO/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE
TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SWANSON
A. TYPHOON 27W (USAGI)
B. 14/0830Z
C. 18.15N
D. 121.97E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 22A/PBO SMALL CDO/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE
TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SWANSON
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: TS 25W(MAN-YI). 14/06UTC ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 50 KNOTS: + 15 KNOTS OVER 24 HOURS. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED
2524111300 126N1437E 35
2524111306 123N1426E 35
2524111312 119N1412E 35
2524111318 116N1395E 40
2524111400 110N1381E 45
2524111406 106N1366E 50
2524111306 123N1426E 35
2524111312 119N1412E 35
2524111318 116N1395E 40
2524111400 110N1381E 45
2524111406 106N1366E 50
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 10.6N 136.6E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 110 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
WITH SPIRAL BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A
140411Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SOMEWHAT
RAGGED BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH STRONG DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED, WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A NARROW TUTT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
110NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, WHICH IS REPORTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF
ONLY 10-15 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE 140000Z YAP SOUNDING INDICATES 30-35
KNOT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE FROM 1000-2500 FEET. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AMSR2 IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED
TO THE NORTH.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 140530Z
CIMSS AIDT: 40 KTS AT 140530Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 29 KTS AT 140413Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 35 KTS AT 140530Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W WILL TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY
CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AS REVEALED IN BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH A POOL OF VERY
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AVAILABLE THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER THE SYSTEM
CROSSES LUZON AND TRACKS BACK OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL SERVE TO STEADILY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 120.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 10.6N 136.6E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 110 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
WITH SPIRAL BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A
140411Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SOMEWHAT
RAGGED BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH STRONG DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED, WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A NARROW TUTT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
110NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, WHICH IS REPORTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF
ONLY 10-15 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE 140000Z YAP SOUNDING INDICATES 30-35
KNOT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE FROM 1000-2500 FEET. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AMSR2 IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED
TO THE NORTH.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 140530Z
CIMSS AIDT: 40 KTS AT 140530Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 29 KTS AT 140413Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 35 KTS AT 140530Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W WILL TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY
CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AS REVEALED IN BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH A POOL OF VERY
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AVAILABLE THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER THE SYSTEM
CROSSES LUZON AND TRACKS BACK OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL SERVE TO STEADILY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 120.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A 90NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. AFTER
TAU 72, GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH A 190NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT
TAU 120. THE 131800Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) AND THE 140000Z GFS
ENSEMBLE (GEFS) REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72. GEFS INDICATES RAPID
WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER
TAU 72, WITH SOLUTIONS DIVERGING FROM SOUTHERN VIETNAM TO HAINAN
ISLAND AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH. THE 140000Z COAMPS-TC
ENSEMBLE (CTCXEPS) INTENSITY PROBABILITY CHART INDICATES PEAK 60-70
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) FROM TAU 12 TO TAU
48. RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC INTENSITY GUIDANCE COMPRISING THE JTWC
INTENSITY CONSENSUS ALSO SHOWS STRONG SUPPORT FOR RI THROUGH TAU 60,
WITH HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC (GFS) PEAKING AT 115-120 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A 90NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. AFTER
TAU 72, GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH A 190NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT
TAU 120. THE 131800Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) AND THE 140000Z GFS
ENSEMBLE (GEFS) REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72. GEFS INDICATES RAPID
WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER
TAU 72, WITH SOLUTIONS DIVERGING FROM SOUTHERN VIETNAM TO HAINAN
ISLAND AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH. THE 140000Z COAMPS-TC
ENSEMBLE (CTCXEPS) INTENSITY PROBABILITY CHART INDICATES PEAK 60-70
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) FROM TAU 12 TO TAU
48. RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC INTENSITY GUIDANCE COMPRISING THE JTWC
INTENSITY CONSENSUS ALSO SHOWS STRONG SUPPORT FOR RI THROUGH TAU 60,
WITH HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC (GFS) PEAKING AT 115-120 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
14/0830UTC SATELLITE ANALYSIS
TPPN12 PGTW 140902
A. TROPICAL STORM 25W (MAN-YI)
B. 14/0830Z
C. 10.59N
D. 136.06E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .7 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 3.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
14/0411Z 10.80N 136.98E AMS2
SWANSON
A. TROPICAL STORM 25W (MAN-YI)
B. 14/0830Z
C. 10.59N
D. 136.06E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .7 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 3.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
14/0411Z 10.80N 136.98E AMS2
SWANSON
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 95S. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 14/0530UTC
9524111300 94S 775E 30
9524111306 95S 770E 30
9524111312 96S 765E 30
9524111318 98S 759E 30
9524111400 99S 754E 30
9524111306 95S 770E 30
9524111312 96S 765E 30
9524111318 98S 759E 30
9524111400 99S 754E 30
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 74.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 75.4E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FULLY OBSCURED BY DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALOFT. A 140049Z SSMIS F16 37GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF 95S AND ANTICIPATED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FULLY OBSCURED BY DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALOFT.
14/0830UTC SATELLITE ANALYSIS
TPXS10 PGTW 140904
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95S (SE OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 14/0830Z
C. 10.29S
D. 75.40E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .5 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SWANSON
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95S (SE OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 14/0830Z
C. 10.29S
D. 75.40E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .5 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SWANSON
