Former Super Typhoon 25W(MAN-YI) dissipating//TC 02S(BHEKI) peaked at CAT 4 US gradually weakening approaching MASCARENE Islands//1909utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 25W. 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON 02S.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME MOSTLY EXPOSED AND EMBEDDED IN THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE AS THE CENTRAL CLOUD COVER HAS GREATLY ERODED AND SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MOSTLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF WEAKENING TREND IN AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLING SST, AND COLD NORTHEASTERLY SURGE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 25W WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE 850MB RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FURTHER ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, LIKELY SOONER.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL EARLY DISSIPATION, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CLOUD COVER THAT HAS FORMED A RAGGED 20 BY 28 NM OBLONG EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED 6-HR CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE FEATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG VENTILATION OFFSET BY COOL WATERS AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STR TO THE SOUTH UP TO TAU 48, THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN RIM OF THE STR. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME UNSTABLE DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOL (25-26C) SST, OFFSET ONLY BY THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LEADING TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 AFTER IT PASSES LA REUNION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO 190NM BY TAU 72, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.

Platform: RCM-1 Acquisition Date: 2024-11-19 01:01:52 UTC Storm Name: SH022025 / BHEKI Storm ID: SH02 Storm Center Longitude: 67.730 Storm Center Latitude: -17.848 Incidence Angle (Degrees): 40.748 Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 75.37 Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 84.51 Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 86.47 Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 66.03 RMax (nmi): 17.00 - 30.00