CLICK ON THE IMAGERIES BELOW TO GET THEM ENLARGED
JTWC IS ISSUING 12 HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 25S.
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 25S(JUDE). 15/06UTC ESTIMATED INTENSITY AND LOCATION
ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 55 KNOTS: + 5 KNOTS OVER 24 HOURS
2525030606 122S 581E 15
2525030612 121S 569E 15
2525030618 121S 557E 15
2525030700 121S 546E 15
2525030706 122S 538E 25
2525030712 125S 527E 25
2525030718 136S 511E 25
2525030800 139S 493E 25
2525030806 141S 477E 25
2525030812 143S 465E 30
2525030818 145S 457E 35
2525030900 148S 445E 45
2525030906 150S 434E 55
2525030912 152S 422E 65
2525030918 150S 413E 80
2525031000 151S 406E 75
2525031006 152S 399E 65
2525031012 149S 390E 55
2525031018 146S 380E 45
2525031100 146S 373E 35
2525031106 153S 365E 30
2525031112 161S 359E 25
2525031118 168S 354E 25
2525031200 173S 351E 25
2525031206 175S 351E 25
2525031212 179S 354E 30
2525031218 184S 358E 30
2525031300 190S 366E 35
2525031306 196S 374E 40
2525031312 202S 383E 40
2525031318 215S 397E 45
2525031400 225S 407E 45
2525031406 232S 415E 50
2525031412 237S 422E 55
2525031418 243S 430E 55
2525031500 249S 439E 50
2525031506 250S 446E 55
2525030612 121S 569E 15
2525030618 121S 557E 15
2525030700 121S 546E 15
2525030706 122S 538E 25
2525030712 125S 527E 25
2525030718 136S 511E 25
2525030800 139S 493E 25
2525030806 141S 477E 25
2525030812 143S 465E 30
2525030818 145S 457E 35
2525030900 148S 445E 45
2525030906 150S 434E 55
2525030912 152S 422E 65
2525030918 150S 413E 80
2525031000 151S 406E 75
2525031006 152S 399E 65
2525031012 149S 390E 55
2525031018 146S 380E 45
2525031100 146S 373E 35
2525031106 153S 365E 30
2525031112 161S 359E 25
2525031118 168S 354E 25
2525031200 173S 351E 25
2525031206 175S 351E 25
2525031212 179S 354E 30
2525031218 184S 358E 30
2525031300 190S 366E 35
2525031306 196S 374E 40
2525031312 202S 383E 40
2525031318 215S 397E 45
2525031400 225S 407E 45
2525031406 232S 415E 50
2525031412 237S 422E 55
2525031418 243S 430E 55
2525031500 249S 439E 50
2525031506 250S 446E 55
WARNING 9 ISSUED AT 15/09UTC. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED
WDXS32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR
009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 25.0S 44.6E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 400 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 06 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 25S (JUDE) TRANSITING OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF
MADAGASCAR. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS OVER 40 KTS
FROM THE NORTHWEST, RESULTING IN ALL ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION BEING
CONTAINED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
ANIMATED SHORTWAVE IR LOOP SHOWING A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TC 25S. THIS ASSESSMENT IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE ANALYSIS OF THE MULTI-MODEL (GFS, ECMWF, UKMET) PRESSURE
FIELDS AND LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND MINIMAL LAND INTERACTION, AS TC 25S
RETAINS MAJORITY OF ITS MOMENTUM THROUGHOUT THE PASSAGE OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS D-MINT: 41 KTS AT 150250Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 50 KTS AT 150530Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
VWS: 40+ KTS
SST: OVER LAND
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 25S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND RE-EMERGE OVER SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN WATER
WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE SYSTEM AS
SOON AS TAU 12, INITIATING A SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT). TC JUDE IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24, ASSISTED BY AN
INJECTION OF WARM (27-28 C) WATER AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET
BY AN INCREASING VWS. BY TAU 36 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME FULLY
SUBTROPICAL AND SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 45 KTS, DUE TO RAPIDLY COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AND FURTHER
INCREASING VWS.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, WITH CROSS-TRACK OF 75 NM. THE GUIDANCE
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AFTERWARDS, AS TRACKS BEGIN TO SPLIT BETWEEN
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS FOLLOWING A SOUTHEASTWARD PATH AND
DETERMINISTIC GFS TRACKER RAPIDLY TURNING NORTHEASTWARD. GFS GUIDANCE
PAST TAU 36 APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY A DEVELOPING AND COMPETING STR TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BY TAU 48.
JTWC TRACK GUIDANCE IS THEREFORE ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STT TIMELINE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DISSIPATION PRIOR TO OR JUST AFTER THE TRANSITION COMPLETION, AS
INDICATED BY THE GFS GUIDANCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR
009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 25.0S 44.6E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 400 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 06 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 25S (JUDE) TRANSITING OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF
MADAGASCAR. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS OVER 40 KTS
FROM THE NORTHWEST, RESULTING IN ALL ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION BEING
CONTAINED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
ANIMATED SHORTWAVE IR LOOP SHOWING A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TC 25S. THIS ASSESSMENT IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE ANALYSIS OF THE MULTI-MODEL (GFS, ECMWF, UKMET) PRESSURE
FIELDS AND LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND MINIMAL LAND INTERACTION, AS TC 25S
RETAINS MAJORITY OF ITS MOMENTUM THROUGHOUT THE PASSAGE OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS D-MINT: 41 KTS AT 150250Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 50 KTS AT 150530Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
VWS: 40+ KTS
SST: OVER LAND
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 25S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND RE-EMERGE OVER SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN WATER
WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE SYSTEM AS
SOON AS TAU 12, INITIATING A SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT). TC JUDE IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24, ASSISTED BY AN
INJECTION OF WARM (27-28 C) WATER AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET
BY AN INCREASING VWS. BY TAU 36 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME FULLY
SUBTROPICAL AND SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 45 KTS, DUE TO RAPIDLY COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AND FURTHER
INCREASING VWS.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, WITH CROSS-TRACK OF 75 NM. THE GUIDANCE
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AFTERWARDS, AS TRACKS BEGIN TO SPLIT BETWEEN
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS FOLLOWING A SOUTHEASTWARD PATH AND
DETERMINISTIC GFS TRACKER RAPIDLY TURNING NORTHEASTWARD. GFS GUIDANCE
PAST TAU 36 APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY A DEVELOPING AND COMPETING STR TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BY TAU 48.
JTWC TRACK GUIDANCE IS THEREFORE ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STT TIMELINE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DISSIPATION PRIOR TO OR JUST AFTER THE TRANSITION COMPLETION, AS
INDICATED BY THE GFS GUIDANCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
TC WARNING GRAPHIC
GOOGLE EARTH OVERLAY
15/0845UTC SATELLITE ANALYSIS
TPXS11 PGTW 150910
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE)
B. 15/0845Z
C. 25.12S
D. 44.65E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
PETERSEN
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE)
B. 15/0845Z
C. 25.12S
D. 44.65E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
PETERSEN
