Western Pacific: 16W forecast to cross Guam in 48hours while intensifying gradually//Eastern Pacific: 12E(LINDA) peaked at CAT 4//Atlantic:06L/07L,15/03utc updates

15/00UTC.

TD 16W. WARNING 19 ISSUED AT 15/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 16W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) THROUGH 48H THEN TURN WEST- NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 120H AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TD 16W SHOULD BEGIN STRENGTHENING AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS AS INDICATED IN THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WITH A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TREND AFTER 72H WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS/CAT 1 ANTICIPATED BY 120H.

TD 16W. WARNING 19. KML.

TD 16W.

TD 16W.SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. MSI ALSO REVEALS A DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. DUE TO THE LACK OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLC, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. HOWEVER, A 142155UTC ASCAT-A PARTIAL IMAGE COVERING THE SYSTEM CENTER SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH EXTENSIVE 5-KNOT WINDS AND A SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED 220KM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ASCAT-A IMAGE SUPPORTS THE DECISION TO DOWNGRADE THE SYSTEM TO TD STRENGTH (30 KNOTS) WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE LOW, DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OF 20-30 KNOTS OFFSET BY MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE HINDERING SUSTAINED CONVECTION AND LIMITING DEVELOPMENT.

TD 16W.MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH 48H WITH A SPREAD OF 160KM AT 48H NEAR GUAM. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC), THERE IS ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION OF THIS BROAD LLC, WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR SHIFTS IN THE TRACK AND CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TIMING AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 48H THEN DIVERGES WITH HWRF INDICATING AN OVERLY AGRESSIVE PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS/CAT 4 AT 120H, WHICH IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY DUE TO THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CONSERVATIVE BUT IS SUPPORTED BY THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS, SHIPS AND GFS SOLUTIONS. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

EASTERN PACIFIC. HU 12E(LINDA). WARNING 20 ISSUED AT 15/04UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 110KNOTS/CAT 3. PEAK INTENSITY AT 115KNOTS/CAT 4 WAS REACHED AT 14/12UTC.

HU 12E(LINDA). 14/1817UTC. NOAA-18.

HU 12E(LINDA). GUIDANCE.

15/00UTC.

ATLANTIC. REMNANTS OF TD 06L(FRED). WARNING 22 ISSUED AT 15/03UTC.

REMNANTS OF TD 06L(FRED). GUIDANCE.

TS 07L(GRACE).WARNING 7 ISSUED AT 15/03UTC.

TS 07L(GRACE). GUIDANCE.