24/0620UTC.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/TIMOR SEA: INVEST 97S. ADDED TO THE JTWC MAP AT 24/0030UTC.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.4S 130.3E, APPROXIMATELY 345 KM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD FLARING CONVECTION SURROUNDING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWS WINDS OF 20KT IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL INTENSIFY AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, HOWEVER THEY ARE SPLIT ON THE TRACK. CMC, GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE A MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, WHILE NAVGEM AND ECMWF HAVE A MORE SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER AUSTRALIA JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
GFS ENSEMBLE.
ECMWF ENSEMBLE.
