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JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 91W
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC/SOUTH CHINA SEA: INVEST 91W. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 19/06UTC. INTENSITY IS 20 KNOTS. ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 19/06UTC
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 119.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 190124Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI- CIRCLE, WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (05-15KTS) VWS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SSTS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL STEER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
Ensemble Forecasts for 91W
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL STEER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT 48 HOURS.
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC/PHILIPPINE SEA: INVEST 92W. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 19/06UTC. INTENSITY IS 20 KNOTS. ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 19/06UTC
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 133.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 132.7E, APPROXIMATELY 527 NM NORTHEAST OF DAVAO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. A 190416Z GMI 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI- CIRCLE WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 92W IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KT), GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS (30C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT INTENSIFIES QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
Ensemble Forecasts for 92W
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 133.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 132.7E, APPROXIMATELY 527 NM NORTHEAST OF DAVAO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. A 190416Z GMI 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI- CIRCLE WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 92W IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KT), GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS (30C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT INTENSIFIES QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
