TC 22S(GARANCE) Rapid Intensification likely within 36h bearing down on REUNION island// TC 18P(ALFRED) at CAT 1 US//2603utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12 HOURLY WARNINGS ON AL TROPICAL CYCLONES ON THE MAP ALONG WITH 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULETINS.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD ROTATION SITUATED IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION POSITIONED IN AN ARC ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMICIRLCE OF THE CIRCULATION. A 251113Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE PRIMARY BANDING FEATURES WERE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65-110NM AWAY FROM THE CENTER, CONFIRMED THE BROAD NATURE OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE NOTED ABOVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, ON THE HIGHER END OF THE AVAILABLE AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM SSTS AND HIGH OHC, GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW WIND SHEAR. THE ONLY HINDRANCE AT THE MOMENT IS THE LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO CONSOLIDATE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TAU 48, WITH LESS THAN 100NM SPREAD ACROSS THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE. THEREAFTER, THE MODELS SPREAD OUT LIKE A STAR-SHELL FIREWORK DISPLAY, RAPIDLY DIVERGING ACROSS ALL POINTS OF THE COMPASS, WIDENING THE SPREAD TO OVER 400NM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF TRACK SOLUTION AND JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THROUGH TAU 48 BUT DRIVES SHARPLY LOWER THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY TO ABOUT TAU 48 THOUGH THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE PEAKS THE SYSTEM ABOUT 10-15 KNOTS LOWER THAN THE JTWC FORECAST.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE SYSTEM WITH SHORT FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDS LOOSELY FEEDING INTO AN EXPANSIVE CENTRAL COLD COVER WITH FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS TOTALLY OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE EXTRAPOLATED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM A 252212Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS. THE INTENSITY IS ALSO VALIDATED BY THE MAJORITY OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST, LOW VWS, AND MODERATE DUAL OUTFLOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD TO 82NM BY TAU 72 THEN MORE ERRATICALLY AND WIDELY TO 334NM BY TAU 120, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE NEAR- TO MID-TERM PORTION, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECASTS TO THE RESPECTIVE PORTIONS OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NOTABLE LEFT-OF-TRACK OUTLIERS INCLUDE UKMET, ECMF, AND AEMN THAT RECURVE THE VORTEX EQUATORWARD AFTER TAU 72.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRENGTHENING SYSTEM, WITH ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO), BUT CURRENTLY STRUGGLING AGAINST PERSISTENT MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THE CONVECTION IS RATHER DISORGANIZED WITH MULTIPLE DISJOINTED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. BASED ON A 252343Z SSMIS COLOR-ENHANCED 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE VORTEX DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AREA OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS REGION OF CONVECTION, BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE NOTED ABOVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES IN LIGHT OF THE HIGHER SATCON AND ADT ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE AND IMPROVING, WITH VERY WARMS SSTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE, OFFSET FOR THE MOMENT BY THE PERSISTENT MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT CPA TO LA REUNION IS 85NM, OPENING UP TO 150NM BY TAU 72. GFS AND THE GEFS MEAN TAKE THE INSIDE TRACK, AND MARK THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHILE UKMET AND THE UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN TAKE A BROADER TURN AND MARK THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OPENS UP TO 350NM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACKS THE ECMWF AND CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH THE TOTALITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT-TERM AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SHIPS-GFS, IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO RI. ALL OF THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE, AND NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE RI SPECIFIC AIDS ARE DEPICTING A RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK BETWEEN 95-115 KNOTS BY TAU 36. ADDITIONALLY, THE ECEPS INTENSIFICATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RI, WHICH IS NEARLY UNHEARD OF FROM ECEPS. IN OTHER WORDS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT RI WILL OCCUR. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LEVELING OFF OF INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48, FOLLOWED BY A RAPID WEAKENING PHASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACKS THE BULK OF THE RI GUIDANCE BUT PEAKS ABOUT 5-15 KNOTS LOWER THAN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MEMBERS.