CLICK ON THE IMAGERIES BELOW TO GET THEM ENLARGED
12 HOURLY WARNINGS ARE ISSUED ON TC 13S AND TC 14S. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON BOTH SYSTEMS AND ON INVEST 92P AND SUPTROPICAL 15P.
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 13S(VINCE). 06/18UTC ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 135 KNOTS/ CATEGORY 4 US(SUPER TYPHOON): + 30 KNOTS OVER 24 HOURS
1325013018 144S1073E 20
1325013100 145S1070E 25
1325013106 145S1064E 25
1325013112 144S1060E 20
1325013118 146S1048E 25
1325020100 150S1038E 30
1325020106 152S1031E 30
1325020112 154S1025E 30
1325020118 156S1013E 35
1325020200 157S1002E 35
1325020206 156S 989E 40
1325020212 155S 980E 40
1325020218 156S 973E 45
1325020300 159S 963E 50
1325020306 165S 949E 55
1325020312 166S 936E 70
1325020318 169S 922E 80
1325020400 172S 910E 85
1325020406 176S 900E 100
1325020412 179S 890E 95
1325020418 182S 880E 90
1325020500 185S 869E 85
1325020506 187S 857E 100
1325020512 187S 847E 105
1325020518 188S 839E 105
1325020600 190S 833E 100
1325020606 193S 825E 115
1325020612 195S 817E 115
1325020618 197S 807E 135
1325013100 145S1070E 25
1325013106 145S1064E 25
1325013112 144S1060E 20
1325013118 146S1048E 25
1325020100 150S1038E 30
1325020106 152S1031E 30
1325020112 154S1025E 30
1325020118 156S1013E 35
1325020200 157S1002E 35
1325020206 156S 989E 40
1325020212 155S 980E 40
1325020218 156S 973E 45
1325020300 159S 963E 50
1325020306 165S 949E 55
1325020312 166S 936E 70
1325020318 169S 922E 80
1325020400 172S 910E 85
1325020406 176S 900E 100
1325020412 179S 890E 95
1325020418 182S 880E 90
1325020500 185S 869E 85
1325020506 187S 857E 100
1325020512 187S 847E 105
1325020518 188S 839E 105
1325020600 190S 833E 100
1325020606 193S 825E 115
1325020612 195S 817E 115
1325020618 197S 807E 135
WARNING 11 ISSUED AT 06/21UTC. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED
WDXS32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE)
WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 19.7S 80.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 135 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1319 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 37 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS FROM 105 KNOTS AT 051800Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS.
AS INDICATED IN THE ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY, TC 13S HAS MAINTAINED A VERY SMALL (80NM DIAMETER)
AXISYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE, WITH AN 18NM ROUND EYE (EYE TEMPERATURE
PLUS 16C) AND WEAK SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS AN ANNULAR-LIKE APPEARANCE, THE PRESENCE OF
THE SPIRAL BAND AND THE NON-UNIFORM CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES DO NOT
CHARACTERIZE AN ANNULAR SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ROUND EYE IN EIR IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS (LONE
EXCEPTION IS FIMP'S T6.0 ESTIMATE, WHICH APPEARS TOO LOW). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CIMSS 061800Z ADT, AIDT
ESTIMATES.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH, WITH A SLIGHT BREAK ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T7.0 - 140 KTS
KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS
DEMS: T7.0 - 140 KTS
FMEE: T6.5 - 127 KTS
FIMP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 127 KTS AT 061800Z
CIMSS ADT: 132 KTS AT 061800Z
CIMSS AIDT: 132 KTS AT 061800Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE,
THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHRINKING BREAK TO THE SOUTH IS FILLING, WITH THE JET MAX LOCATED ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH, AND PROPAGATING QUICKLY EASTWARD.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DRIVING THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. DUE TO HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AND THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE INSULATED CORE, TC 13S SHOULD
MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH WINDS (130-140 KNOTS) THROUGH TAU 36.
HOWEVER, THE VERY SMALL SYSTEM IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE STEERING RIDGE WILL RE-
ORIENT NORTH-SOUTH, WITH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL TROUGH
DIGGING EQUATORWARD AND ENVELOPING THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE
SYSTEM SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 120. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
DEGRADE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD LEADING TO A PRONOUNCED WEAKENING
TREND, WITH INCREASING (30-35 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING
SST VALUES (24-25C).
MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A 90NM TO 150NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD FROM TAU
72 TO TAU 120. EPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WIDER
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS BUT REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN
THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
0206 18UTC: GEO KOMPSAT 2-A : NEAR BEST SATELLITE SIGNATURE
TPXS12 PGTW 061753
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE)
B. 06/1730Z
C. 19.66S
D. 80.81E
E. TWO/MET9
F. T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN E#
OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.0. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/1212Z 19.48S 81.67E SMOS
06/1251Z 19.48S 81.55E SSMS
06/1406Z 19.48S 81.37E CWVR
06/1407Z 19.48S 81.38E TMPT
06/1605Z 19.60S 80.98E MMHS
HUYNH
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE)
B. 06/1730Z
C. 19.66S
D. 80.81E
E. TWO/MET9
F. T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN E#
OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.0. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/1212Z 19.48S 81.67E SMOS
06/1251Z 19.48S 81.55E SSMS
06/1406Z 19.48S 81.37E CWVR
06/1407Z 19.48S 81.38E TMPT
06/1605Z 19.60S 80.98E MMHS
HUYNH
0206 1911UTC NPP NEAR BEST SATELLITE SIGNATURE
TPXS12 PGTW 062049
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE)
B. 06/2030Z
C. 19.78S
D. 80.30E
E. TWO/MET9
F. T6.5/7.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN E#
OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 6.5. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/1605Z 19.60S 80.98E MMHS
HUYNH
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE)
B. 06/2030Z
C. 19.78S
D. 80.30E
E. TWO/MET9
F. T6.5/7.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN E#
OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 6.5. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/1605Z 19.60S 80.98E MMHS
HUYNH
TC Warning Graphic
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE, THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRINKING BREAK TO THE SOUTH IS FILLING, WITH THE JET MAX LOCATED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH, AND PROPAGATING QUICKLY EASTWARD. CONSEQUENTLY, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DRIVING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. DUE TO HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE INSULATED CORE, TC 13S SHOULD MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH WINDS (130-140 KNOTS) THROUGH TAU 36. HOWEVER, THE VERY SMALL SYSTEM IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE STEERING RIDGE WILL RE- ORIENT NORTH-SOUTH, WITH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL TROUGH DIGGING EQUATORWARD AND ENVELOPING THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 120. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD LEADING TO A PRONOUNCED WEAKENING TREND, WITH INCREASING (30-35 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SST VALUES (24-25C).
Model Diagnostic Plot
MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A 90NM TO 150NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 120. EPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WIDER SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS BUT REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.
HFSA Model Diagnostic Plot - Multiple Runs: THE MODEL UNDER-ESTIMATES PEAK INTENSITY
HWRF Model Diagnostic Plot - Multiple Runs: THE MODEL UNDER-ESTIMATES PEAK INTENSITY
AI-enhanced Advanced Dvorak Technique (AiDT) Version 1.0
Radius of Maximum Wind (RMW)
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 14S(TALIAH). WARNING 12 ISSUED AT 0206 21UTC
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S WILL TRACK WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, A SERIES OF MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL WEAKEN THE STR LEADING A VERY COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN. A WEAK STR TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE WESTERN STR WILL ERODE, WITH A STR BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL TURN THE SYSTEM WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. VWS IS FORECAST TO RELAX AFTER TAU 36, WITH RE-MOISTENING OF THE SYSTEM'S CORE, WHICH WILL PRODUCE STEADY RE- INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 96 TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS.
MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A 45NM TO 65NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 72. THE 061200Z EPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED JTWC TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: INVEST 94S. ADVISORY ISSUED AT 0206 18UTC.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.9S 41.0E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF TURNING WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. A NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATION AT 061600Z SHOWS A BELT OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH CYCLONIC ROTATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT MOVING FORWARD WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY HINDERING THE SYSTEM FROM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO NOT YET FAVOR THIS SYSTEM, ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION ON A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE COAST OF CENTRAL MOZAMBIQUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN: INVEST 92P. ADVISORY ISSUED AT 0206 1430UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.1S 162.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.4S 163.9E, APPROXIMATELY 142 NM WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 061009Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS THE ELONGATED AND ASYMMETRICAL NATURE OF THE WIND FIELD WITH 35 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 30-35 KNOTS, MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26-27 C. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THE CIRCULATION CONTINUING TO ELONGATE WITHIN THE SPCZ. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
