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Western Pacific: still active with 3 systems being monitored, 23/03utc updates



INVEST 90W WAS FIRST MENTIONNED ON THE JTWC MAP AT 22/06UTC. IT IS ASSESSED TO BE A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM(HYBRID WITH BOTH MID-LATITUDE AND TROPICAL FEATURES). THE AREA WAS UP-GRADED TO HIGH AT 22/22UTC. ON THE OTHER END JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 09W AND 10W. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
INVEST 90W WAS FIRST MENTIONNED ON THE JTWC MAP AT 22/06UTC. IT IS ASSESSED TO BE A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM(HYBRID WITH BOTH MID-LATITUDE AND TROPICAL FEATURES). THE AREA WAS UP-GRADED TO HIGH AT 22/22UTC. ON THE OTHER END JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 09W AND 10W. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
2021 JULY 23 02UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
TY #09W #INFA
WARNING 28/JTWC
As of 00:00 UTC July 23, 2021:
Location: 24.1°N 125.3°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 961 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
LOCATED AT 23/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 365 KM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 35 FEET.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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TD #10W #CEMPAKA
WARNING 19/JTWC
As of 00:00 UTC July 23, 2021:
Location: 20.8°N 107.4°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
THE VORTEX OF TD 10W REMAINS INTACT AND HAS RECENTLY MOVED OFF-SHORE.
LOCATED AT 23/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 365 KM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
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INVEST #90W
UPDATE/TCFA
As of 00:00 UTC July 23, 2021:
Location: 22.3°N 147.9°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
SUBTROPICAL
LOCATED AT 23/00UTC

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

TY 09W(IN-FA). WARNING 28 ISSUED AT 23/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: PRESSURE FALLS REPORTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SENKAKU ISLANDS VERIFY THE APPROACH OF TYPHOON IN-FA. THE SYSTEM HAS CLOCKED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK BETWEEN ISHIKAKIJIMA AND MIYAKOJIMA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONCE CLEARING THE RYUKUS, COOLER WATERS ON COUPLED WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PUT THE SYSTEM ON A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE DURATION OF ITS TRACK INTO EASTERN CHINA. IT IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AT SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
TY 09W(IN-FA). WARNING 28 ISSUED AT 23/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: PRESSURE FALLS REPORTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SENKAKU ISLANDS VERIFY THE APPROACH OF TYPHOON IN-FA. THE SYSTEM HAS CLOCKED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK BETWEEN ISHIKAKIJIMA AND MIYAKOJIMA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONCE CLEARING THE RYUKUS, COOLER WATERS ON COUPLED WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PUT THE SYSTEM ON A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE DURATION OF ITS TRACK INTO EASTERN CHINA. IT IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AT SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.


Western Pacific: still active with 3 systems being monitored, 23/03utc updates


09W(IN-FA).SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 222236UTC SSMIS SERIES SHOWS THE EYE OF TY 09W WEAKENING OVER THE POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING PRESSURE ON THE OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE HWRF-P COUPLED MODEL SHOWS INCREASING COOLING OF THE SEA SURFACE AROUND THE CORE DUE TO THE CHURNING CAUSED BY THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE UPWELLING, SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW, AND DISSIPATION OF ENERGY INDICATED BY THE EXPANSIVE EYE SEEM TO BE ACTING AS BRAKING MECHANISMS ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND AN ADT EVALUATION OF 74KNOTS. TY 09W IS UNDERWAY ON ITS NORTHWESTERLY LEG THROUGH 48H AND IS STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE.
09W(IN-FA).SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 222236UTC SSMIS SERIES SHOWS THE EYE OF TY 09W WEAKENING OVER THE POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING PRESSURE ON THE OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE HWRF-P COUPLED MODEL SHOWS INCREASING COOLING OF THE SEA SURFACE AROUND THE CORE DUE TO THE CHURNING CAUSED BY THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE UPWELLING, SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW, AND DISSIPATION OF ENERGY INDICATED BY THE EXPANSIVE EYE SEEM TO BE ACTING AS BRAKING MECHANISMS ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND AN ADT EVALUATION OF 74KNOTS. TY 09W IS UNDERWAY ON ITS NORTHWESTERLY LEG THROUGH 48H AND IS STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE.

09W(IN-FA).MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SHARPER FOCUS REGARDING A LEFT TURN NORTH OF THE 28TH LATITUDE AND LANDFALL SOUTH OF SHANGHAI. IT HAS, HOWEVER, CLOCKED A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST TWO CYCLES AND FIXES ARE VERIFYING THAT TREND. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO LOCK INTO THE LANDFALL SCENARIO WHICH MATCHES THE JTWC FORECAST, WHILE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF MEMBERS STAYING OFF-SHORE AND TRACKING TOWARDS THE YELLOW SEA. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A MODERATE INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, THEN A SHARP DECAY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WESTWARD BEND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS THEN COMES INTO THE MEAN AT 72H.
09W(IN-FA).MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SHARPER FOCUS REGARDING A LEFT TURN NORTH OF THE 28TH LATITUDE AND LANDFALL SOUTH OF SHANGHAI. IT HAS, HOWEVER, CLOCKED A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST TWO CYCLES AND FIXES ARE VERIFYING THAT TREND. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO LOCK INTO THE LANDFALL SCENARIO WHICH MATCHES THE JTWC FORECAST, WHILE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF MEMBERS STAYING OFF-SHORE AND TRACKING TOWARDS THE YELLOW SEA. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A MODERATE INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, THEN A SHARP DECAY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WESTWARD BEND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS THEN COMES INTO THE MEAN AT 72H.

TD 10W(CEMPAKA). WARNING 19 ISSUED AT 23/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 10W IS NOT EXPECTED TO REGENERATE TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS DUE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN. THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF TONKIN WILL SUSTAIN THE VORTEX THROUGH TAU 24 BUT EVENTUALLY THE WINDSHEAR WILL OVERCOME THE SYSTEM.
TD 10W(CEMPAKA). WARNING 19 ISSUED AT 23/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 10W IS NOT EXPECTED TO REGENERATE TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS DUE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN. THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF TONKIN WILL SUSTAIN THE VORTEX THROUGH TAU 24 BUT EVENTUALLY THE WINDSHEAR WILL OVERCOME THE SYSTEM.

Western Pacific: still active with 3 systems being monitored, 23/03utc updates

10W(CEMPAKA). SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY, AND SURFACE REPORTS ALONG COASTAL CHINA AND VIETNAM CONFIRM THAT THE VORTEX OF TD 10W REMAINS INTACT AND HAS MOVED OFF-SHORE. SOME DISORGANIZED CONVECTION PERSISTS WITH THE SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN, CREATING AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SYSTEM REGENERATION.
10W(CEMPAKA). SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY, AND SURFACE REPORTS ALONG COASTAL CHINA AND VIETNAM CONFIRM THAT THE VORTEX OF TD 10W REMAINS INTACT AND HAS MOVED OFF-SHORE. SOME DISORGANIZED CONVECTION PERSISTS WITH THE SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN, CREATING AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SYSTEM REGENERATION.

10W(CEMPAKA).MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH A CYCLONIC LOOP TOWARDS HAINAN ISLAND. NO GUIDANCE INDICATES INTENSIFICATION AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM ON A FLAT TREND THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATING OVER WATER.
10W(CEMPAKA).MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH A CYCLONIC LOOP TOWARDS HAINAN ISLAND. NO GUIDANCE INDICATES INTENSIFICATION AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM ON A FLAT TREND THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATING OVER WATER.

INVEST 90W.THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM/DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 221852UTC SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH WEAK BAROCLINICITY.
INVEST 90W.THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM/DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 221852UTC SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH WEAK BAROCLINICITY.

INVEST 90W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD CENTRAL HONSHU, THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM-CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM EAST OF THE KANTO PLAIN.
INVEST 90W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD CENTRAL HONSHU, THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM-CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM EAST OF THE KANTO PLAIN.

23/00UTC.
23/00UTC.

23/00UTC.
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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Friday, July 23rd 2021 à 06:10
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Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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