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Western Pacific: TS 21W(DIANMU) landfall South of Dan Nang/TS 20W forecast to peak at Typhoon/CAT 4 by 96h//Atlantic: TD 18L intensifying, 23/09utc




23/00UTC.
23/00UTC.

TS 20W. WARNING 4 ISSUED AT 23/09UTC

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH AN INCREASED TRACK SPEED. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 20W WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 DEGREE CELSIUS), LOW SHEAR AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL SUSTAINED INTENSIFICATION TO 125 KNOTS/CAT 4 BY 96H. AFTERWARDS, TS 20W WILL BE SLIGHTLY HAMPERED BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AROUND 120H, TS 20W WILL REACH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BEFORE BEGINNING A GRADUAL RECURVE SOUTHWEST OF JAPAN.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH AN INCREASED TRACK SPEED. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 20W WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 DEGREE CELSIUS), LOW SHEAR AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL SUSTAINED INTENSIFICATION TO 125 KNOTS/CAT 4 BY 96H. AFTERWARDS, TS 20W WILL BE SLIGHTLY HAMPERED BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AROUND 120H, TS 20W WILL REACH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BEFORE BEGINNING A GRADUAL RECURVE SOUTHWEST OF JAPAN.
2021092012  97N1567E  15
2021092018 102N1555E  15
2021092100 107N1541E  15
2021092106 109N1526E  20
2021092112 109N1517E  20
2021092118 109N1510E  20
2021092200 108N1503E  20
2021092206 110N1495E  20
2021092212 112N1486E  25
2021092218 118N1475E  30
2021092300 123N1460E  30
2021092306 130N1447E  35
NNNN
 

Western Pacific: TS 21W(DIANMU) landfall South of Dan Nang/TS 20W forecast to peak at Typhoon/CAT 4 by 96h//Atlantic: TD 18L intensifying, 23/09utc



SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 230348Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION HAS REMAINED REMOVED FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY AUTOMATED AND AGENCY DVORAK FIXES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE NEARLY OVERHEAD, AND VERY WARM SSTS.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 230348Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION HAS REMAINED REMOVED FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY AUTOMATED AND AGENCY DVORAK FIXES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE NEARLY OVERHEAD, AND VERY WARM SSTS.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WITH GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWING A NEAR POLEWARD TRACK, WHEREAS THE REMAINING MODELS SHOW A MORE GRADUAL RECURVE WITH A SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 96H. UKMET AND THE UKMET ENSEMBLE TRACKS ARE FURTHER DELAYED IN THEIR RECURVE TIMING WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF KADENA. THE JTWC TRACK IS LAID ALONG THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED BETWEEN 12H AND 36H.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WITH GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWING A NEAR POLEWARD TRACK, WHEREAS THE REMAINING MODELS SHOW A MORE GRADUAL RECURVE WITH A SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 96H. UKMET AND THE UKMET ENSEMBLE TRACKS ARE FURTHER DELAYED IN THEIR RECURVE TIMING WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF KADENA. THE JTWC TRACK IS LAID ALONG THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED BETWEEN 12H AND 36H.


TS 21W(DIANMU). WARNING 4 ISSUED AT 23/09UTC

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 21W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK AND MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF DANANG BEFORE 12H AND TRANSITION ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF VIETNAM AND INTO CAMBODIA. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN INTENSITY WHILE OVER WATER BEFORE BEGINNING DISSIPATION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. LAND INTERACTION WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY 36H.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 21W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK AND MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF DANANG BEFORE 12H AND TRANSITION ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF VIETNAM AND INTO CAMBODIA. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN INTENSITY WHILE OVER WATER BEFORE BEGINNING DISSIPATION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. LAND INTERACTION WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY 36H.
2121092100 114N1180E  15
2121092106 114N1175E  15
2121092112 114N1169E  15
2121092118 116N1163E  15
2121092200 119N1154E  15
2121092206 123N1143E  20
2121092212 128N1133E  25
2121092218 130N1124E  25
2121092300 135N1112E  30
2121092306 143N1102E  35
NNNN

Western Pacific: TS 21W(DIANMU) landfall South of Dan Nang/TS 20W forecast to peak at Typhoon/CAT 4 by 96h//Atlantic: TD 18L intensifying, 23/09utc


SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET NORTHWESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 230510Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND RADAR COVERAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT BEFORE LANDFALL WITH WARM SSTS OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW AND MEDIUM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET NORTHWESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 230510Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND RADAR COVERAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT BEFORE LANDFALL WITH WARM SSTS OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW AND MEDIUM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN HIGH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN MEDIUM AGREEMENT DUE TO COMPETING ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN HIGH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN MEDIUM AGREEMENT DUE TO COMPETING ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS.


23/00UTC.
23/00UTC.

ATLANTIC. TD 16L(PETER). WARNING 18/FINAL ISSUED AT 23/03UTC.
ATLANTIC. TD 16L(PETER). WARNING 18/FINAL ISSUED AT 23/03UTC.
1621091312 100N 118W  20
1621091318 100N 138W  20
1621091400 101N 159W  20
1621091406 102N 181W  25
1621091412 102N 199W  25
1621091418 102N 215W  25
1621091500 103N 231W  25
1621091506 103N 246W  30
1621091512 104N 261W  30
1621091518 112N 287W  25
1621091600 115N 315W  25
1621091606 112N 339W  25
1621091612 112N 360W  25
1621091618 118N 380W  25
1621091700 119N 400W  25
1621091706 120N 418W  25
1621091712 125N 436W  25
1621091718 134N 454W  25
1621091800 141N 473W  25
1621091806 145N 491W  30
1621091812 150N 504W  30
1621091818 156N 516W  30
1621091900 164N 527W  30
1621091906 170N 541W  35
1621091912 174N 558W  40
1621091918 180N 570W  40
1621092000 184N 580W  45
1621092006 189N 589W  45
1621092012 193N 603W  45
1621092018 198N 613W  45
1621092100 198N 621W  45
1621092106 196N 633W  40
1621092112 198N 640W  35
1621092118 203N 648W  30
1621092200 206N 651W  30
1621092206 212N 659W  30
1621092212 213N 665W  30
1621092218 216N 667W  30
1621092300 219N 669W  30
 

TD 17L(ROSE). WARNING 17/FINAL ISSUED AT 23/09UTC.
TD 17L(ROSE). WARNING 17/FINAL ISSUED AT 23/09UTC.

1721091618 120N 195W  15
1721091700 118N 207W  15
1721091706 115N 220W  15
1721091712 109N 229W  15
1721091718 100N 239W  20
1721091800  90N 248W  25
1721091806  90N 254W  25
1721091812  89N 261W  25
1721091818  94N 269W  25
1721091900 104N 273W  30
1721091906 113N 279W  30
1721091912 126N 283W  30
1721091918 138N 294W  35
1721092000 147N 306W  35
1721092006 156N 318W  35
1721092012 167N 329W  35
1721092018 177N 340W  40
1721092100 189N 351W  45
1721092106 202N 360W  40
1721092112 212N 367W  35
1721092118 222N 374W  35
1721092200 227N 377W  35
1721092206 231N 381W  30
1721092212 234N 388W  30
1721092218 238N 397W  30
1721092300 242N 406W  30
1721092306 249N 413W  30
 

TD 18L. WARNING 3 ISSUED AT 23/09UTC. CUREENT INTENSITY IS 30KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO REACH 70KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 25/18UTC AND 100KNOTS/CAT 3 BY 28/06UTC.
TD 18L. WARNING 3 ISSUED AT 23/09UTC. CUREENT INTENSITY IS 30KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO REACH 70KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 25/18UTC AND 100KNOTS/CAT 3 BY 28/06UTC.
1821091900 103N 115W  15
1821091906 100N 131W  15
1821091912  98N 147W  15
1821091918  96N 163W  15
1821092000  95N 178W  20
1821092006  95N 193W  25
1821092012  93N 210W  25
1821092018  94N 228W  25
1821092100  95N 247W  25
1821092106  95N 261W  25
1821092112  95N 273W  25
1821092118  95N 285W  25
1821092200  96N 296W  25
1821092206  96N 307W  25
1821092212  98N 319W  30
1821092218 100N 331W  30
1821092300 102N 344W  30
1821092306 104N 357W  30

TD 18L. TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
TD 18L. TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

23/10UTC.
23/10UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Thursday, September 23rd 2021 à 10:20
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