TS 20W(MINDULLE). WARNING 8 ISSUED AT 24/09UTC.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 20W WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK SOUTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UP TO 96H. AFTER WHICH POINT IT WILL APPROACH THE RIDGE AXIS AROUND 120H AS IT BEGINS A NORTHWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN AS IT FUELS RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 125 KNOTS/CAT 4 BY 72H, WITH A PEAK OF 130KNOTS/CAT 4 "SUPER TYPHOON" BY 96H. DECREASED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, DOWN TO 115KNOTS BY 120H.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED WITH THE FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DEEPENING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 240432Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SSTS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED WITH THE CROSS TRACK SPREAD DECREASING TO 870 KM BY 120H. UKMET TRACKERS ARE STILL MAINTAINING TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS WHEREAS GFS TRACKERS ARE THE RIGHT MOST OUTLIERS SHOWING A TIGHTER RECURVE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS LAID NEAR THE JTWC CONSENSUS. DESPITE HIGH MODEL CONFIDENCE IN INTENSITY, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION.
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN. TC 03B. WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 24/09UTC.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER INDIA BEFORE 96H. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF SUSTAINED WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS), MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) WILL FUEL GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60KNOTS BY 48H. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO MODERATE SHEAR. AFTERWARDS, LAND INTERACTION ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF INDIA WILL CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 240550Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 240229Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING A SWATH OF 30-35KT WINDS WRAPPED AROUND THE LLCC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE WITH AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN LOOSE AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND INTENSITY AS TC 03B HAS RECENTLY MOVED OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFIED IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO GRASP ITS CURRENT VORTEX. DESPITE THE ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TC 03B.
JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON BOTH 20W AND 03B.
ATLANTIC. HU 18L(SAM). WARNING 7 ISSUED AT 24/09UTC.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS 65KNOTS/CAT 1 AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 115KNOTS/CAT 4 BY 26/06UTC.
HU 18L(SAM). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
24/1030UTC.
