JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 09W AND 10W. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
2021 JULY 20 0130UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
TS #09W #INFA
WARNING 16/JTWC
As of 00:00 UTC July 20, 2021:
Location: 24.4°N 130.8°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 975 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 20/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 390 KM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA,JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KM/H OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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TY #10W #CEMPAKA
WARNING 7/JTWC
As of 00:00 UTC July 20, 2021:
Location: 21.3°N 112.4°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt (120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 977 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 20/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 215 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 24 FEET.
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TS #09W #INFA
WARNING 16/JTWC
As of 00:00 UTC July 20, 2021:
Location: 24.4°N 130.8°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 975 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 20/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 390 KM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA,JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KM/H OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
----------------------------------------
TY #10W #CEMPAKA
WARNING 7/JTWC
As of 00:00 UTC July 20, 2021:
Location: 21.3°N 112.4°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt (120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 977 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 20/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 215 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 24 FEET.
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TS 09W(IN-FA). WARNING 16 ISSUED AT 20/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 09W WILL TRACK MORE WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) TOWARD NORTHERN TAIWAN. AFTER 72H, IT WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD, NEAR TAIPEI, TAIWAN, AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR, THEN MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA NEAR FUZHOU NEAR 108H. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 90KTS/CAT 2 AROUND 48H. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AFTER LANDFALL IN CHINA, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTTEM DOWN TO 35KNOTS BY 120H.
TS 09W(IN-FA).SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION DEEPENED AND RAIN BANDS, THE LARGEST SWATH FEEDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST, WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS HELD HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE IMPROVED 6-HR METSAT SIGNATURE.
TS 09W(IN-FA). MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO 48H THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD TO JUST 165KM AT 72H, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE NEAR TO MID-TERM PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTERWARD, FORECAST TRACK CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE WITH NVGM ON THE EXTREME RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE SUGGESTING A SHARP RECURVATURE NORTHEASTWARD, AND UKMET ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE WITH A FLAT WESTWARD SOLUTION RESULTING IN A 1350+ KM SPREAD.
TY 10W(CEMPAKA). WARNING 7 ISSUED AT 20/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY CEMPAKA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STR AND MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER 12H ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CHINESE COAST NEAR YANGJIANG. AFTER 36H, IT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A TIGHT LEFT U-TURN TRACING THE WEST COAST OF LEIZHOU PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN TIP OF HAINAN BEFORE EXITING BACK INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) AFTER 72H. BY 120H, TY 10W WILL BE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SCS BETWEEN HONG KONG AND LUZON, PHILIPPINES. LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED CHINESE INTERIOR WILL RAPIDLY DECAY THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 30KNOTS. HOWEVER, AFTER 48H, INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF TONKIN WILL REVIVE IT TO 35KNOTS, AND BY 120H WILL BE UP TO 40KNOTS.
TY 10W(CEMPAKA).SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND A DEFINED, ALBEIT CLOUD-FILLED EYE, AS IT TRACKED VERY SLOWLY TOWARD CHINA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURES BOTH IN THE MSI AND CNA COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS THAT LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 192317UTC SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS/CAT 1 IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED METSAT SIGNATURE.
TY 10W(CEMPAKA).MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN UNISON WITH THE TIGHT U-TURN FORECAST TRACK, ALBEIT IN VARYING DEGREES AND SPEED WITH NVGM OFFERING THE TIGHTEST TURN AND GFS AND JGSM ON THE WIDE MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS, PLUS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF LAND INTERACTION AND THE ANTICIPATED STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON SURGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, CONTRIBUTE TO AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.
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