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Western Pacific: 09W(IN-FA) Cat1 Typhoon intensifying a bit next 12/24h, 11W(NEPARTAK) is subtropical, Remnants of 10W(CEMPAKA) still monitored, 24/03utc updates



JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 09W AND 11W. WARNING 21/FINAL WAS ISSUED ON 10W AT 23/15UTC. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON THE 3 SYSTEMS.
JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 09W AND 11W. WARNING 21/FINAL WAS ISSUED ON 10W AT 23/15UTC. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON THE 3 SYSTEMS.
2021 JULY 24 0215UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
TY #09W #INFA
WARNING 32/JTWC
As of 00:00 UTC July 24, 2021:
Location: 26.4°N 124.7°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure:  mb
CATEGORY US: 1
LOCATED AT 24/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 310 KM WEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 19 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 33 FEET.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
----------------------------------------
REMNANTS OF TD #10W #CEMPAKA
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC July 24, 2021:
Location: 19.5°N 107.1°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
WARNING 21/FINAL WAS ISSUED AT 23/15UTC.
LOCATED AT 24/00UTC APPROXIMATELY
-----------------------------------------------
STS #11W #NEPARTAK
WARNING 3/JTWC
As of 00:00 UTC July 24, 2021:
Location: 25.0°N 149.5°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 mb
SUBTROPICAL
LOCATED AT 24/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 1480 KM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 15 FEET.


Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

TY 09W(IN-FA). WARNING 32 ISSUED AT 24/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 09W WILL TRACK ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM (11W) FROM ITS SOUTHEAST. BY 36H, THE CYCLONE WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA, SOUTH OF SHANGHAI, AND DRAG INLAND AND WESTWARD AS A SECONDARY, LOWER LEVEL, STR ASSUMES STEERING. THE CURRENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 70KNOTS/CAT 1 AT 12/24H; AFTERWARD, COOLING SSTS IN THE YELLOW SEA, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THEN LAND INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY 96H AS IT TRACKS 425KM+ INLAND, POSSIBLY SOONER.
TY 09W(IN-FA). WARNING 32 ISSUED AT 24/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 09W WILL TRACK ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM (11W) FROM ITS SOUTHEAST. BY 36H, THE CYCLONE WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA, SOUTH OF SHANGHAI, AND DRAG INLAND AND WESTWARD AS A SECONDARY, LOWER LEVEL, STR ASSUMES STEERING. THE CURRENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 70KNOTS/CAT 1 AT 12/24H; AFTERWARD, COOLING SSTS IN THE YELLOW SEA, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THEN LAND INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY 96H AS IT TRACKS 425KM+ INLAND, POSSIBLY SOONER.

Western Pacific: 09W(IN-FA) Cat1 Typhoon intensifying a bit next 12/24h, 11W(NEPARTAK) is subtropical, Remnants of 10W(CEMPAKA) still monitored, 24/03utc updates

09W(IN-FA).SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REINTENSIFIED AS IT REGAINED CONVECTIVE DEPTH AND SYMMETRY AND IMPROVED FEEDER BAND WRAP AS IT MAINTAINED A RAGGED 40-KM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI EYE FEATURE THAT IS CONCENTRIC WITH A LARGER, ALBEIT WELL-DEFINED, CIRCULATION FEATURE IN COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS/CAT 1 IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF BELOW AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR INTENSIFICATION.
09W(IN-FA).SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REINTENSIFIED AS IT REGAINED CONVECTIVE DEPTH AND SYMMETRY AND IMPROVED FEEDER BAND WRAP AS IT MAINTAINED A RAGGED 40-KM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI EYE FEATURE THAT IS CONCENTRIC WITH A LARGER, ALBEIT WELL-DEFINED, CIRCULATION FEATURE IN COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS/CAT 1 IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF BELOW AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR INTENSIFICATION.

09W(IN-FA).MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 530KM BY 96H, THE LARGEST FLARE OCCURING AFTER 48H. THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO REASONABLY SPREAD UP TO LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, THE DISCREPANCY INCREASES CONCURRENT TO THE DIVERGENCE IN TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UP TO 48H; AFTERWARD, LOW.
09W(IN-FA).MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 530KM BY 96H, THE LARGEST FLARE OCCURING AFTER 48H. THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO REASONABLY SPREAD UP TO LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, THE DISCREPANCY INCREASES CONCURRENT TO THE DIVERGENCE IN TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UP TO 48H; AFTERWARD, LOW.

09W(IN-FA). 24/0157UTC.
09W(IN-FA). 24/0157UTC.


TD 10W(CEMPAKA). WARNING 21/FINAL ISSUED AT 23/15UTC.
TD 10W(CEMPAKA). WARNING 21/FINAL ISSUED AT 23/15UTC.
PEAK INTENSITY WAS 80KNOTS/CAT 1.
1021071706 190N1156E  15
1021071712 193N1155E  15
1021071718 196N1153E  15
1021071800 200N1151E  20
1021071806 204N1144E  25
1021071812 206N1137E  30
1021071818 207N1133E  40
1021071900 209N1131E  45
1021071906 210N1129E  50
1021071912 211N1127E  55
1021071918 212N1125E  65
1021072000 213N1124E  65
1021072006 215N1122E  80
1021072012 217N1119E  75
1021072018 218N1116E  55
1021072100 221N1113E  35
1021072106 221N1109E  25
1021072112 225N1105E  25
1021072118 228N1095E  25
1021072200 228N1089E  25
1021072206 226N1083E  25
1021072212 222N1080E  25
1021072218 217N1078E  25
1021072300 212N1077E  25
1021072306 207N1074E  25
1021072312 200N1073E  20
1021072318 201N1077E  20
1021072400 195N1071E  20
NNNN
 

11W(NEPARTAK). WARNING 3 ISSUED AT 24/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 11W IS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AND NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE INTO A WARM CORE BAROTROPIC (TYPICAL TROPICAL) SYSTEM. IT WILL NOT DEVELOP INTO A VIGOROUS STORM AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 50 KNOTS DURING ITS LIFE CYCLE. THE SYSTEM WILL MANANGE TO GENERATE SOME RAISED SURF FOR THE OLYMPIC SURFING EVENTS. ITS ORIGIN AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MONSOON GYRE PLACES IT WITHIN THE DIVERGENT REGION OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL TROUGH WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHILE THE HIGH LATITUDE OF FORMATION PRECLUDES MOVEMENT THROUGH A ZONE WITH ADEQUATE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BUT LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE POINT OF RECKONING IN THE FORECAST WILL COME AS THE STORM CROSSES THE 30TH LATITUDE, WHERE IT A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL FORCE THE THE STORM TO TURN TO A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS HONSHU. AS THE STORM MAKES THE TURN, THE CERTAINTY OF WHERE THE STORM WILL COME ASHORE WILL INCREASE SHARPLY. UNTIL WE SEE THE STORM ROUND THAT TURN, FORECAST TRACK UNCERTAINTY WILL REMAIN HIGH.
11W(NEPARTAK). WARNING 3 ISSUED AT 24/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 11W IS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AND NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE INTO A WARM CORE BAROTROPIC (TYPICAL TROPICAL) SYSTEM. IT WILL NOT DEVELOP INTO A VIGOROUS STORM AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 50 KNOTS DURING ITS LIFE CYCLE. THE SYSTEM WILL MANANGE TO GENERATE SOME RAISED SURF FOR THE OLYMPIC SURFING EVENTS. ITS ORIGIN AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MONSOON GYRE PLACES IT WITHIN THE DIVERGENT REGION OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL TROUGH WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHILE THE HIGH LATITUDE OF FORMATION PRECLUDES MOVEMENT THROUGH A ZONE WITH ADEQUATE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BUT LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE POINT OF RECKONING IN THE FORECAST WILL COME AS THE STORM CROSSES THE 30TH LATITUDE, WHERE IT A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL FORCE THE THE STORM TO TURN TO A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS HONSHU. AS THE STORM MAKES THE TURN, THE CERTAINTY OF WHERE THE STORM WILL COME ASHORE WILL INCREASE SHARPLY. UNTIL WE SEE THE STORM ROUND THAT TURN, FORECAST TRACK UNCERTAINTY WILL REMAIN HIGH.

Western Pacific: 09W(IN-FA) Cat1 Typhoon intensifying a bit next 12/24h, 11W(NEPARTAK) is subtropical, Remnants of 10W(CEMPAKA) still monitored, 24/03utc updates

11W(NEPARTAK).SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TROPICAL STORM NEPARTAK IS FULLY EXPOSED AND BREAKING AWAY FROM THE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION AT THE BASE OF THE MONSOON GYRE. VIGOROUS WESTERLIES ALOFT ARE SHEARING THE CLOUD BAND TO THE EAST OF THE VORTEX. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY, AMSU RADIAL HEIGHT AND CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS, AND STRETCHED 850 MB VORTICITY PATTERN ARE INDICATIVE OF A SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A JTWC DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 USING THE SUB-TROPICAL TECHNIQUE AND SUPPORTED BY AN ADT ESTIMATE.
11W(NEPARTAK).SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TROPICAL STORM NEPARTAK IS FULLY EXPOSED AND BREAKING AWAY FROM THE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION AT THE BASE OF THE MONSOON GYRE. VIGOROUS WESTERLIES ALOFT ARE SHEARING THE CLOUD BAND TO THE EAST OF THE VORTEX. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY, AMSU RADIAL HEIGHT AND CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS, AND STRETCHED 850 MB VORTICITY PATTERN ARE INDICATIVE OF A SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A JTWC DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 USING THE SUB-TROPICAL TECHNIQUE AND SUPPORTED BY AN ADT ESTIMATE.

11W(NEPARTAK).MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A TRACK TOWARDS THE TOHOKU REGION OF JAPAN. BY THE TIME THE STORM REACHES THE 72 HOUR FORECAST POSITION, HOWEVER, THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. SOME VORTEX TRACKERS INDICATE LANDFALL AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CHIBA PENINSULA, WHILE THE NORTHERNMOST TRACKERS POINT TO MISAWA. WHERE THE STORM MAY STRIKE, WITH OUR TWO CHAMPIONS--ECMWF AND GFS--BEING THE OUTLIERS OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. ECMWF POINTS TO THE NORTHERN CHIBA PENINSULA, WHILE GFS POINTS TOWARDS MISAWA. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS PACKED BETWEEN THE TWO, WITH THE MEAN POINTING AT SENDAI. THE JTWC FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH POINTS TO SENDAI. THE INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS TO THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE. STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL PREDICTIONS SHOW TOO MUCH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GIVE UP ON THE SYSTEM BEFORE LANDFALL WHILE CONSENSUS SHOWS A PEAK AT 24H AS THE STORM BEGINS THE TURN TO THE WEST. THERE IS LOW BUT INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM WILL STAY AT LOW TROPICAL STORM OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH UNTIL LANDFALL AND WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE JAPANESE ALPS. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SURVIVE INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN.
11W(NEPARTAK).MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A TRACK TOWARDS THE TOHOKU REGION OF JAPAN. BY THE TIME THE STORM REACHES THE 72 HOUR FORECAST POSITION, HOWEVER, THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. SOME VORTEX TRACKERS INDICATE LANDFALL AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CHIBA PENINSULA, WHILE THE NORTHERNMOST TRACKERS POINT TO MISAWA. WHERE THE STORM MAY STRIKE, WITH OUR TWO CHAMPIONS--ECMWF AND GFS--BEING THE OUTLIERS OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. ECMWF POINTS TO THE NORTHERN CHIBA PENINSULA, WHILE GFS POINTS TOWARDS MISAWA. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS PACKED BETWEEN THE TWO, WITH THE MEAN POINTING AT SENDAI. THE JTWC FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH POINTS TO SENDAI. THE INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS TO THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE. STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL PREDICTIONS SHOW TOO MUCH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GIVE UP ON THE SYSTEM BEFORE LANDFALL WHILE CONSENSUS SHOWS A PEAK AT 24H AS THE STORM BEGINS THE TURN TO THE WEST. THERE IS LOW BUT INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM WILL STAY AT LOW TROPICAL STORM OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH UNTIL LANDFALL AND WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE JAPANESE ALPS. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SURVIVE INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN.

24/0150UTC.
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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Saturday, July 24th 2021 à 07:10
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