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Western North Pacific: Invest 96W now on the map// North Atlantic: 05L(ELSA) reached Hurricance Category 1, 02/18utc updates



Western North Pacific: Invest 96W now on the map// North Atlantic: 05L(ELSA) reached Hurricance Category 1, 02/18utc updates
2021 JULY 02 22UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
INVEST #96W
UPDATE
As of 18:00 UTC July 02, 2021:
Location: 10.6°N 133.3°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
LOCATED AT 02/18UTC APPROXIMATELY 320 KM NORTH OF PALAU.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: LOW

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

INVEST 96W. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021700Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION SURROUNDING A WAVE AXIS. A 021230Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS NOT DEVELOPED A CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).
INVEST 96W. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021700Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION SURROUNDING A WAVE AXIS. A 021230Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS NOT DEVELOPED A CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).


INVEST 96W. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD BUT ARE SPLIT REGARDING INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT ECMWF AND JMA STAYING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
INVEST 96W. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD BUT ARE SPLIT REGARDING INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT ECMWF AND JMA STAYING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.

NORTH ATLANTIC. HURRICANE 05L(ELSA). WARNING 10 ISSUED AT 02/21UTC. 05L HAS INTENSIFIED MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND REACHED CATEGORY 1 BY 02/12UTC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75KNOTS/CAT1 IS FORECAST TO BE THE PEAK INTENSITY.
NORTH ATLANTIC. HURRICANE 05L(ELSA). WARNING 10 ISSUED AT 02/21UTC. 05L HAS INTENSIFIED MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND REACHED CATEGORY 1 BY 02/12UTC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75KNOTS/CAT1 IS FORECAST TO BE THE PEAK INTENSITY.
0521062812  80N 284W  20
0521062818  80N 300W  20
0521062900  80N 316W  20
0521062906  80N 332W  20
0521062912  80N 348W  25
0521062918  80N 360W  25
0521063000  82N 376W  25
0521063006  86N 393W  25
0521063012  90N 411W  30
0521063018  94N 428W  30
0521070100  93N 453W  30
0521070106  94N 477W  35
0521070112  99N 502W  40
0521070118 107N 526W  40
0521070200 114N 547W  45
0521070206 123N 573W  50
0521070212 130N 598W  65
0521070218 138N 624W  75

05L(ELSA). GUIDANCE.
05L(ELSA). GUIDANCE.

05L(ESLA). 02/2027UTC. DMSP VISIBLE.
05L(ESLA). 02/2027UTC. DMSP VISIBLE.

02:12utc.
02:12utc.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Saturday, July 3rd 2021 à 02:33
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Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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