Western North Pacific: Invest 96W is now TD 03W, forecast to intensify next 24hours while approaching Mindanao, 12/21utc update

TD 03W. 12/20UTC. 5H LOOP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND DEVELOPED WELL DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES WHICH ARE WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT CORE WITH MODERATE CONVECTION.

TD 03W. WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 12/21UTC.ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(VWS) AND WARM (30C) SSTS. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE LACK OF A STRONG OUTFLOW MECHANISM ALOFT. JTWC UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A VERY SMALL POINT SOURCE OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM, BUT ONLY VERY WEAK CHANNELS TO POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD. TD 03W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48H, ALONG THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THEREAFTER, AS IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE, IT WILL SHIFT TO A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS IT COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER- LEVEL FLOW. FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VWS, WARM SSTS AND MARGINAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF MINDANAO. AFTER LANDFALL TD 03W WILL BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION. BY 48H, THE SYSTEM WILL REEMERGE OVER WATER BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PALAWAN AND INTO THE SULU SEA, INCREASING VWS AND INDUCING CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE NO LATER THAN 72H IN THE SULU SEA, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF DISSIPATION AS EARLY AS 48H.

TD 03W. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH MINIMAL SPREAD THROUGH 72H, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN, AS THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE COMPACT SYSTEM WELL, WITH SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, IN LARGE PART ESTIMATED BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, WHICH ARE NOT EFFECTIVELY CAPTURED IN THE MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE, RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

TD 03W. 12/1910UTC.

INVEST 92A. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT, VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92A WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 03W. INVEST 92A REMAINS MEDIUM: MODERATE CHANCES OF HAVING 35KNOT WINDS NEAR ITS CENTER WITHIN 24HOURS.