Western North Pacific: 03W is a compact and intensifying Tropical Storm, approaching Mindanao, 13/03utc update

TS 03W. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATING IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF T2.0 (30KNOT) FACTORED WITH A SHIP REPORT OF 40KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.

TS 03W. WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 13/03UTC. TS 03W IS MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 700-850MB MEAN STEERING LAYER WINDS INDICATE A FIRM WESTWARD STEERING FLOW ALL THE WAY ACROSS MINDANAO. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING NORTH OF THE 10TH LATITUDE, WHERE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RISES SHARPLY. THERE IS GOOD CONVICTION THAT TS 03W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE SURIGAO DEL SUR PROVINCE OF MINDANAO, NEAR THE 8TH LATITUDE. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VWS, WARM SSTS AND MARGINAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS AT LANDFALL. AS 03W MOVES INTO THE SULU SEA AND RECONSOLIDATES, SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENCROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL RETARD FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

TS 03W. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MINDANAO AND INTO THE SULU SEA AFTER 36H. THERE IS EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS, BUT ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE ONCE 03W MOVES INTO THE SULU SEA. THE TRACK THROUGH THE SULU SEA IS MUCH LESS CLEAR AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH WILL BE LEFT OF THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX, THE EFFECTS OF A MORE SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, AND A MORE AMBIGUOUS STEERING FLOW. THERE IS ALSO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DROPS PRECIPITOUSLY DUE TO THE EXACT POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NOT YET REVEALING CONCLUSIVE SIGNS OF THE INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE.

TS 03W.24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 10.6 m/s (20.5 kts)Direction : 274.4deg Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: FAVOURABLE OVER 24H .

INVEST 92A.

13/03UTC.JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 03W. INVEST 92A REMAINS MEDIUM: MODERATE CHANCES OF HAVING 35KNOT WINDS NEAR ITS CENTER WITHIN 24HOURS.

13/00UTC.