02W(SURIGAE). 15/02UTC. 3H LOOP. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTANT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD.
2021 APR 15 02UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
TS #02W #SURIGAE
WARNING 7
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 15, 2021:
Location: 9.0°N 136.4°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt (95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 992 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 15/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 195KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TS #02W #SURIGAE
WARNING 7
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 15, 2021:
Location: 9.0°N 136.4°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt (95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 992 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 15/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 195KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
02W(SURIGAE). WARNING 7 ISSUED AT 15/03UTC.ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST DUAL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. TS 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 02W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STR AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, REACHING 95 KNOTS/CAT 2 BY 72H. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN 36H AND 72H DUE TO THE CONSISTENT SHEAR AND PRESSURE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF TS 02W. AFTER 72H, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH NORTH OF THE STR WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN, CAUSING A BREAK IN STR. ONCE THE STR BREAKS, TS SURIGAE WILL BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD, TRACKING AROUND EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE AND BRING TS 02W TO A PEAK OF 115KNOTS/CAT 4 AT 96H AND WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AFTERWARDS AS COOLER SST PREVAIL.
02W(SURIGAE). NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECREASE IN THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD TO 240KM AT 72H LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS. NUMERICAL MODEL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD HAS DECREASED TO 465KM AT 120H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
02W(SURIGAE). MODEL ENSEMBLE: ECMWF
02W(SURIGAE). MODEL ENSEMBLE: GFS
02W(SURIGAE).15/02UTC. PERIPHERAL BANDS TRACKING CLOSE TO THE PHILIPPINES.
15/03UTC. THE JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 02W(SURIGAE) AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS.
