01W. 07/20UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF AN AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION.
2021 FEB 17 2045UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
TD #01W
WARNING 3
As of 18:00 UTC Feb 17, 2021:
Location: 7.0°N 132.7°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
TD 01W( ONE) LOCATED AT 17/18UTC APPROXIMATELY 780 KM
EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Patrick Hoareau
Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TD #01W
WARNING 3
As of 18:00 UTC Feb 17, 2021:
Location: 7.0°N 132.7°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
TD 01W( ONE) LOCATED AT 17/18UTC APPROXIMATELY 780 KM
EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Patrick Hoareau
Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
01W. WARNING 3 ISSUED AT 17/21UTC. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 29-30C. TD 01W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.TD 01W IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER AND SOUTH OF JAPAN. IN GENERAL, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48H UNTIL THE MAJOR TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ZONAL FLOW PREDOMINATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STR TO RE-BUILD NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE WEST- NORTHWESTWARD WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING NEAR 72H. TD 01W WILL INTENSIFY STEADILY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY 48H UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MODERATE WIND SHEAR. AFTER 72H, TD 01W WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO, AND BY 120H, WILL REACH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA OFF THE ISLAND OF MINDORO. INTERACTION WITH THE ISLANDS AND INCREASED WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 35 KNOTS BY 120H.
01W. 17/1925UTC. MICROWAVE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE DEFINED LLCC WITH RAGGED, FORMATIVE BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 175NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT 72H.NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AND IS POOR AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A LARGE SPREAD OF 900KM AT 120H. SEVERAL MODELS (NAVGEM, UKMET DETERMINISTIC AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN) ARE RECURVING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD, WHICH IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF A RE-BUILDING STR AND ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
17/2130UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 01W AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 21S. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
