https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/
https://www.meteo974.re/South-Indian-cyclone-LILI-26S-has-formed-near-Timor-potential-threat-of-strong-winds-and-heavy-rain-to-the-island_a807.html
https://www.meteo974.re/2PM-PH--06UTC-90W-near-Palau-no-longer-suspect-92W-models-less-aggressive-but-area-still-under-close-watch_a804.html
https://www.meteo974.re/2-weeks-outlook-MJO-over-the-West-Pacific-and-moving-eastward-92W-likely-to-develop-and-approach-the-Guam-area_a802.html
As of 06:00 UTC May 09, 2019:
Location: 6.3°N 161.1°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
CHANCES OF BECOMING A TD NEXT 24HOURS: MEDIUM
ABPW10 PGTW 090600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.0N 162.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3N 161.1E, APPROXIMATELY 180
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 090232Z AMSR2 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLC. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN
ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTH AND WEAK WESTERLY
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS)
REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT MAINTAINING NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY WITH MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Location: 9.6°N 134.9°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
CHANCES OF BECOMING A TD NEXT 24HOURS: VERY LOW
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Location: 11.1°S 161.3°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
CHANCES OF BECOMING A TC NEXT 24HOURS: LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 090600
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.1S 161.3E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON
ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090433Z SSMI
85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A POORLY-ORGANIZED BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED, FLARING CONVECTION. A RECENT ASCAT
PASS REVEALS A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS 94P BORDERING AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH SUPPORTIVE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS)
SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT 94P WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
https://www.meteo974.re/
https://www.meteo974.re/South-Indian-cyclone-LILI-26S-has-formed-near-Timor-potential-threat-of-strong-winds-and-heavy-rain-to-the-island_a807.html
https://www.meteo974.re/2PM-PH--06UTC-90W-near-Palau-no-longer-suspect-92W-models-less-aggressive-but-area-still-under-close-watch_a804.html
https://www.meteo974.re/2-weeks-outlook-MJO-over-the-West-Pacific-and-moving-eastward-92W-likely-to-develop-and-approach-the-Guam-area_a802.html
Location: 6.3°N 161.1°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
CHANCES OF BECOMING A TD NEXT 24HOURS: MEDIUM
ABPW10 PGTW 090600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.0N 162.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3N 161.1E, APPROXIMATELY 180
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 090232Z AMSR2 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLC. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN
ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTH AND WEAK WESTERLY
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS)
REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT MAINTAINING NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY WITH MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Location: 9.6°N 134.9°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
CHANCES OF BECOMING A TD NEXT 24HOURS: VERY LOW
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Location: 11.1°S 161.3°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
CHANCES OF BECOMING A TC NEXT 24HOURS: LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 090600
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.1S 161.3E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON
ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090433Z SSMI
85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A POORLY-ORGANIZED BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED, FLARING CONVECTION. A RECENT ASCAT
PASS REVEALS A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS 94P BORDERING AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH SUPPORTIVE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS)
SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT 94P WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.