TS 04W. 30/14UTC. 4H30 LOOP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) INDICATES A DEEP CONSOLIDATED CENTRAL BALL OF CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
2021 MAY 30 1450UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
TS #04W
WARNING 4
As of 12:00 UTC May 30, 2021:
Location: 6.9°N 131.9°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt (65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 30/12UTC APPROXIMATELY APPROXIMATELY 180 KM NORTH OF SONSOROL, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST #90W
UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC May 30, 2021:
Location: 7.8°N 145.4°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
LOCATED AT 30/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 605KM SOUTH OF GUAM.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: HIGH
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TS #04W
WARNING 4
As of 12:00 UTC May 30, 2021:
Location: 6.9°N 131.9°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt (65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 30/12UTC APPROXIMATELY APPROXIMATELY 180 KM NORTH OF SONSOROL, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST #90W
UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC May 30, 2021:
Location: 7.8°N 145.4°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
LOCATED AT 30/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 605KM SOUTH OF GUAM.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: HIGH
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TS 04W. WARNING4 ISSUED AT 30/15UTC.TS 04W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. TS 04W WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND BY 72H, WHICH WILL REACH 60KNOTS. AFTER 72H, TD 04W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE SAME STR; HOWEVER, BY 96H, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE SLIGHTLY, TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65KNOTS/ US CAT 1 BY 96H. AFTERWARD, AS IT BECOMES EXPOSED TO INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNDER THE POLAR FRONT JET, TD 04W WILL RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO INCREASING VWS TO 45KNOTS BY 120H.
TS 04W. THE FORECAST TRACK IS LAID SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND AHEAD OF MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS TO OFFSET NAVGEM, GFS, AND AFUM TRACKERS, WHICH ARE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. AFTER 72H, THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF FORECAST CONSENSUS, OFFSETTING THE MORE EXTREME RIGHT OUTLIERS OF JGSM AND ECMWF.NUMERICAL MODELS ALONG TRACK / CROSS TRACK ERRORS CONTINUALLY INCREASE FROM 510KM AT 36H AND INCREASE TO A SPREAD GREATER THAN 1055KM BY 96H AS THE SYSTEM REACHES THE POLAR FRONT JET AND ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
TS 04W. 30/1430UTC.
TS 04W. 30/12UTC.24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 4.4 m/s (8.6 kts)Direction : 46.2deg Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: VERY FAVOURABLE OVER 24H.
TS 04W. 30/12UTC. GOOD OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL BE IMPROVING EVEN MORE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 24H.
