TD 04W. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OVERALL CONSOLIDATION EVEN AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION SLIGHTLY WARMED WITH THE FEEDER BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH, WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. IF NECESSARY CLIK ON THE IMAGERY TO ANIMATE IT.
2021 MAY 30 0205UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
TD #04W
WARNING 2
As of 00:00 UTC May 30, 2021:
Location: 6.6°N 133.8°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt (55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 30/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 125 KM SOUTH OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST #90W
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC May 30, 2021:
Location: 6.6°N 149.7°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
LOCATED AT 30/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 920KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: HIGH
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TD #04W
WARNING 2
As of 00:00 UTC May 30, 2021:
Location: 6.6°N 133.8°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt (55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 30/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 125 KM SOUTH OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST #90W
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC May 30, 2021:
Location: 6.6°N 149.7°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
LOCATED AT 30/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 920KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: HIGH
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TD 04W. WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 30/03UTC.TD 04W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EASTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALOFT, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. TD 04W WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, AND BY 72H, WILL REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY OF 65KNOTS/US CAT 1. AFTER 72H, TD 04W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE SAME STR; HOWEVER, BY 96H, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE TO 75KNOTS/US CAT 1 BY 96H. AFTERWARD, AS IT BECOMES EXPOSED TO INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNDER THE POLAR FRONT JET, THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK AROUND 102H THEN SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DECAY DUE TO INCREASING VWS DOWN TO 65KNOTS BY 120H.
TD 04W.THE FORECAST TRACK IS LAID SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND AHEAD OF MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS TO OFFSET THE GFS TRACKER BEING SLOW AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. AFTER 36H, THE FORECAST TRACK IS MORE TO THE RIGHT OF FORECAST CONSENSUS, TO OFFSET NVGM BEING THE EXTREME LEFT OUTLIER WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS.AFTER 72H NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING ALSO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
29/18UTC. HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE. 77KNOTS AT +96H.
TD 04W. 24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 7.1 m/s (13.8 kts)Direction : 71.9deg Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: FAVOURABLE OVER 24H.
30/00UTC. INVEST 99W WAS UP-GRADED TO TD 04W AT 29/21UTC. INVEST 90W IS STILL HIGH FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 04W.
30/03UTC.
