WNP: TD 04W (CHOI-wan) is forecast to intensify a bit within 24hours, track Southwest of Manila and then over the South China Sea, 02/09utc update

TD 04W. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC) JUST NORTHEAST OF MINDORO, WITH A RECENT FLARE UP OF MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION NOW OBSCURING THE LLCC.

TD 04W. WARNING 15 ISSUED AT 02/09UTC.ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, AS EVIDENCED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN CLOSELY TRACKING THE LLCC IS STILL PRESENT, BUT HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY, ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(VWS) VALUES (15-20 KTS), AND AN INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TD 04W IS TRACKING NORTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR TO THE NORTHEAST.OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TD 04W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD, SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LUZON TO THE SOUTH OF MANILA AND REEMERGE INTO SOUTH CHINA SEA TO THE WEST OF SUBIC BAY. AS IT DOES SO, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY, WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH DISSIPATING, ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A DIVERGENT OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 35 KTS THROUGH 12H. BY 36H THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE AXIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO THE CONVERGENT SECTOR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. THE CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL LEAD TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 72H AS IT EXPERIENCES RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.

TD 04W.DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, WITH A MAXIMUM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 205 KM AT 36H AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD DRAMATICALLY INCREASES TO 1260 KM BY 72H AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD, WHICH IS EXPECTED IN RECURVE SCENARIOS. HOWEVER, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES WEST OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 12H IN LIGHT OF THE NEAR-TERM MOTION VECTOR, THEN HUGS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE 48H, THEN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND MUCH SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH 72H. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS MODERATE, WITH A POTENTIAL TRACK FURTHER WEST THROUGH 36H BEING THE PRIMARY ALTERNATE SCENARIO. A TRACK FURTHER WEST, OVER WARMER, HIGHER OHC WATERS, WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME UNDER MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTH AND BEING SHEARED.

TD 04W. WARNING 15. FORECAST TRACK OVER 24H.

02/0840UTC.

02/06UTC.24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 10.1 m/s (19.1 kts)Direction : 66.3deg Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: FAVOURABLE OVER 24H.

02/06UTC.

02/00UTC.