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WNP: Invest 96W still likely to develop next 24hours, Invest 97W up-graded to Medium// North Atlantic: 05L(ELSA) approaching Cuba, 04/06utc updates



WNP: Invest 96W still likely to develop next 24hours, Invest 97W up-graded to Medium// North Atlantic: 05L(ELSA) approaching Cuba, 04/06utc updates
2021 JULY 04 0635UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
INVEST #96W
TCFA/UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC July 04, 2021:
Location: 14.0°N 130.7°E
Maximum Winds: 18/23 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
LOCATED AT 04/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 1050 KM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: HIGH.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
-------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST #97W
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC July 04, 2021:
Location: 13.7°N 118.8°E
Maximum Winds: 12/18 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
LOCATED AT 04/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 255 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM.

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

INVEST 96W.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 040444Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD BUT ARE SPLIT REGARDING INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT NAVGEM, ECMWF, AND JMA STAYING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
INVEST 96W.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 040444Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD BUT ARE SPLIT REGARDING INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT NAVGEM, ECMWF, AND JMA STAYING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
9621070218  97N1350E  20
9621070300  99N1345E  20
9621070306 101N1342E  20
9621070312 104N1338E  20
9621070318 110N1332E  20
9621070400 131N1320E  20
9621070406 140N1307E  20

INVEST 96W. GFS ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO HINT AT UP-COMING DEVELOPMENT.
INVEST 96W. GFS ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO HINT AT UP-COMING DEVELOPMENT.

INVEST 97W.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 040202Z METOP-B IMAGE DEPICT 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD BUT ARE SPLIT REGARDING INTENSIFICATION, WITH ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, AND NAVGEM SHOWING DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS WHILE THE GFS AND JGSM ARE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
INVEST 97W.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 040202Z METOP-B IMAGE DEPICT 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD BUT ARE SPLIT REGARDING INTENSIFICATION, WITH ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, AND NAVGEM SHOWING DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS WHILE THE GFS AND JGSM ARE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.

INVEST 97W.GFS HINTS AT INTENSITY REMAINING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
INVEST 97W.GFS HINTS AT INTENSITY REMAINING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.

NORTH ATLANTIC. 05L(ELSA). WARNING 15 ISSUED AT 04/03UTC. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEAR 60KNOTS BY 24HOURS.
NORTH ATLANTIC. 05L(ELSA). WARNING 15 ISSUED AT 04/03UTC. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEAR 60KNOTS BY 24HOURS.
0521062812  80N 284W  20
0521062818  80N 300W  20
0521062900  80N 316W  20
0521062906  80N 332W  20
0521062912  80N 348W  25
0521062918  80N 360W  25
0521063000  82N 376W  25
0521063006  86N 393W  25
0521063012  90N 411W  30
0521063018  94N 428W  30
0521070100  93N 453W  30
0521070106  94N 477W  35
0521070112  99N 502W  40
0521070118 107N 526W  40
0521070200 114N 547W  45
0521070212 130N 598W  65
0521070218 138N 624W  75
0521070300 145N 651W  70
0521070306 157N 679W  65
0521070312 166N 703W  65
0521070318 173N 727W  60
0521070400 177N 747W  55

05L(ESLA). GUIDANCE.
05L(ESLA). GUIDANCE.

04/00UTC.
04/00UTC.

04/00UTC.
04/00UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Sunday, July 4th 2021 à 11:15
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