WARNING 6 ISSUED AT 22/09UTC.FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 06W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THEN TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 48H AND CREST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) AXIS BY 72H. AFTERWARD, IT WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, THEN AFTER 96H, NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 65KNOTS/US CATEGORY 1 BY 72H. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(VWS) AND COOLING SSTS WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE CYCLONE. CONCURRENTLY BY 96H, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT ENTERS THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MERGES WITH THE MEIYU FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. BY 120H, TS 06W WILL COMPLETE ETT AND EMBED INTO THE GRADIENT FLOW AS A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD.
2021 JUNE 22 0745UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
TS #06W
WARNING 6/UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC June 22, 2021:
Location: 13.9°N 142.5°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 22/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 260 KM WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KM/H
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TS #06W
WARNING 6/UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC June 22, 2021:
Location: 13.9°N 142.5°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 22/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 260 KM WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KM/H
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL SPREADING TO 300KM AT 72H AND 370KM AT 120H. JGSM IS THE SOLE LEFT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER. THIS LENDS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 72H TO OFFSET JGSM.
22/00UTC. HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE: 64KNOTS AT +96H.
22/00UTC. AVN INTENSITY GUIDANCE: 66KNOTS AT +78H.
22/0727UTC.SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED, DEEPENED, AND TOTALLY OBSCURED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). RAIN BANDS, MOSTLY EMANATING FROM THE EAST, REMAIN WEAK AND FRAGMENTED, HOWEVER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A RAGGED LLC FEATURE IN THE 220615Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND ADT DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED 6-HR MSI SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM SSTS AND LOW VWS TEMPERED BY A WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
22/0022UTC.
22/06UTC.24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 3.3 m/s (6.5 kts)Direction : 252.0deg Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: VERY FAVOURABLE OVER 24H.
THE JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 06W.
22/00UTC.
22/00UTC.
