TS 04W. 31/0230UTC. 4H LOOP.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED, OFFSETTING AN OTHERWISE DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD.
2021 MAY 31 0250UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
TS #04W
WARNING 6
As of 00:00 UTC May 31, 2021:
Location: 7.9°N 130.7°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt (95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 986 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 31/00UTC APPROXIMATELY APPROXIMATELY 1290 KM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TS #04W
WARNING 6
As of 00:00 UTC May 31, 2021:
Location: 7.9°N 130.7°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt (95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 986 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 31/00UTC APPROXIMATELY APPROXIMATELY 1290 KM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TS 04W. WARNING 6 ISSUED AT 31/03UTC. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-31C) ALONG-TRACK SST OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, TS 04W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WARM PHILIPPINE SEA UP TO 72H. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS, PEAKING AT 70KNOTS/US CAT 1 BY 72H.AFTER 72H, TS 04W WILL CREST THE STR AXIS AND TURN NORTHWARD THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOWER VWS UNDER THE STR AXIS AND INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES MAY INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE FURTHER BY 78H; HOWEVER, AFTERWARD, THE INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40KNOTS BY 120H. CONCURRENTLY AT 120H, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE.
TS 04W.NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD TO 500KM AT 72H AND JGSM THE SOLE OUTLIER ON THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET JGSM. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING ALSO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
30/18UTC. AVN INTENSITY GUIDANCE: 60KNOTS AT +6H.
30/18UTC. HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE: 53KNOTS AT +18H.
TS 04W. 31/00UTC.24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 9.1 m/s (17.7 kts)Direction : 35.6deg Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: FAVOURABLE OVER 24H.
JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TS 04W.
