Typhoon Hagibis is forecast to track dangerously close to the Tokyo area shortly before 24h

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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY HAGIBIS(20W)
As of 12:00 UTC Oct 11, 2019:
Location: 29.9°N 137.1°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt ( 215km/h)
Gusts: 140 kt ( 260km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 mb
CATEGORY 4 US
WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR
026//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AND IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA, INCLUDING 110936Z GMI IMAGERY. THE
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 FROM KNES AND PGTW, AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A 110735Z OBJECTIVE SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 107 KNOTS.
TYPHOON 20W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS,
SUPPORTED BY SUFFICIENTLY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28C), AND VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A
SOLID RING OF DEEP CONVECTION IS EVIDENT AROUND THE COMPACT, 10 NM
EYE. TY 20W CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.     
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, TY 20W WILL TRACK POLEWARD AND
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE AS IT APPROACHES THE ISLAND OF HONSHU. STEADY
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
QUICKLY INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND AS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STORM CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH LAND.
THE SYSTEM CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE TOKYO AREA,
AROUND TAU 24, BEFORE THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY ACCELERATES OUT TO SEA TO
THE EAST OF HONSHU. TY 20W WILL BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND TRANSITION INTO A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF
DIRECTION AND FORWARD SPEED. THUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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