FORECAST LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE 48H
Météo974
Location: 12.6°N 115.0°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 mb
WDPN32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (NAKRI) WARNING NR
014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, A 082314Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIAL MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, PLACING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. BASED ON A
082124Z SATCON OF 60 KTS AND A 082340Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE SET
AT 57 KTS, THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KTS. MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5-4.0 (55-65 KTS) FROM PGTW, RJTD,
AND KNES LEND GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM HAS
UNIMPRESSIVE WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IN THE AREA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
ARE FAVORABLE AT 28-29 CELSIUS. TS 25W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH IS
BUILDING EASTWARD FROM MAINLAND SOUTHEAST ASIA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 25W WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36.
AT THAT POINT, THE TRACK WILL SHIFT WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL TAU 72, THEN
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS VWS
INCREASES AND CONVERGES WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. OVERALL, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, ALL MODELS PREDICTING THE WESTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR-TERM.
AFTER TAU 36, UK MET AND UK MET ENSEMBLE PRESENT AN ALTERNATE SOLUTION
AS THEIR TRACKS TAKE A NORTHWARD TURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS SOME ALONG-TRACK SPREAD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO VARIATION IN TRACK SPEED. THE CURRENT JTWC
FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE GIVEN NOTED MODEL SPREAD.
C. TS 25W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAND AND
ENCOUNTERS RUGGED TERRAIN WITH THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING AFTER TAU 72.
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES PERSISTENT WESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF THE WEAKENED LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THIS
PERIOD.//
NNNN
M974World
NORTH INDIANLocation: 12.6°N 115.0°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 mb
WDPN32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (NAKRI) WARNING NR
014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, A 082314Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIAL MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, PLACING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. BASED ON A
082124Z SATCON OF 60 KTS AND A 082340Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE SET
AT 57 KTS, THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KTS. MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5-4.0 (55-65 KTS) FROM PGTW, RJTD,
AND KNES LEND GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM HAS
UNIMPRESSIVE WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IN THE AREA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
ARE FAVORABLE AT 28-29 CELSIUS. TS 25W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH IS
BUILDING EASTWARD FROM MAINLAND SOUTHEAST ASIA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 25W WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36.
AT THAT POINT, THE TRACK WILL SHIFT WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL TAU 72, THEN
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS VWS
INCREASES AND CONVERGES WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. OVERALL, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, ALL MODELS PREDICTING THE WESTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR-TERM.
AFTER TAU 36, UK MET AND UK MET ENSEMBLE PRESENT AN ALTERNATE SOLUTION
AS THEIR TRACKS TAKE A NORTHWARD TURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS SOME ALONG-TRACK SPREAD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO VARIATION IN TRACK SPEED. THE CURRENT JTWC
FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE GIVEN NOTED MODEL SPREAD.
C. TS 25W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAND AND
ENCOUNTERS RUGGED TERRAIN WITH THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING AFTER TAU 72.
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES PERSISTENT WESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF THE WEAKENED LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THIS
PERIOD.//
NNNN
25W MOVING SLOWLY
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TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
