WARNING 4/JTWC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/
https://www.meteo974.re/South-Indian-cyclone-LILI-26S-getting-a-little-bit-stronger-potential-threat-to-East-Timor-with-heavy-rain-and-strong_a810.html
https://www.meteo974.re/South-Indian-cyclone-LILI-26S-has-formed-near-Timor-potential-threat-of-strong-winds-and-heavy-rain-to-the-island_a807.html
Location: 9.9°S 129.1°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
WEAKENING
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 129.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM WITH WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 092155Z SSMIS
IMAGE SHOWS LIMITED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND A 092155Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO HINDER ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 26S
IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED
TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE UNTIL DISSIPATION AT TAU
36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//
NNNN
https://www.meteo974.re/
https://www.meteo974.re/South-Indian-cyclone-LILI-26S-getting-a-little-bit-stronger-potential-threat-to-East-Timor-with-heavy-rain-and-strong_a810.html
https://www.meteo974.re/South-Indian-cyclone-LILI-26S-has-formed-near-Timor-potential-threat-of-strong-winds-and-heavy-rain-to-the-island_a807.html
Location: 9.9°S 129.1°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
WEAKENING
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 129.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM WITH WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 092155Z SSMIS
IMAGE SHOWS LIMITED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND A 092155Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO HINDER ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 26S
IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED
TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE UNTIL DISSIPATION AT TAU
36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//
NNNN
0247UTC
2155UTC
