TY 02W(SURIGAE) still intense since the 16th, intensity on the decline though// 29S(JOBO): intensity has peaked near 55knots, small-sized system, 22/03utc update

02W(SURIGAE). 22/0330UTC. 3H LOOP.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE HAS CONSTRICTED SLIGHTLY AND IS BEGINNING TO BECOME CLOUD-FILLED. MSI STILL SHOWS A VIGOROUS AND WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A 83KM EYE WHICH LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND AN EXPANDING CLOUD SHIELD THAT IS BEGINNING TO STRETCH TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURIGAE FEELS THE EFFECTS OF VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. BASED ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM IS ON A CLEAR WEAKENING TREND. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ASSESSMENTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT (PGTW T5.5, RCTP T5.0, RJTD T5.5, KNES T5.0), LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 100 KNOTS/CAT3 INITIAL INTENSITY.

02W(SURIGAE). WARNING 35 ISSUED AT 22/03UTC.TY SURIGAE WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHEASTERLY BEARING AND WEAKEN STEADILY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH THE EYE FILLING AND THE CLOUD SHIELD STRETCHING AS IT DOES SO. ANALYSIS OF STORM CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE BEGINNING OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING IN THE NEAR TERM. TWO MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS MOVING OFF THE ASIA CONTINENT WILL AFFECT THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE FIRST WILL BE A NEAR MISS AS SURIGAE TRACKS SOUTH OF OKINAWA. IT WILL STRETCH AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BUT NOT PICK IT UP AND CARRY IT INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FIRST TROUGH IT WILL NUDGE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. A SECOND, DEEPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER THE GOBI DESERT WILL PICK UP THE SYSTEM NEAR 72H AND LEAD TO THE INITIATION OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BEGINNING NEAR TAU 72 (25/00Z) THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AND THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE ON INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. A BRIEF BUMP IN INTENSITY WILL OCCUR AS IT FUSES WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BECOMES A VIGOROUS STORM FORCE LOW WHILE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO.

02W(SURIGAE).TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHT 72H (NEAR THE 135TH MERIDIAN), THEN BEGINS TO SPREAD AND VARY IN ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS DURING THE PROCESS OF ABSORPTION INTO THE THICKNESS RIBBON (BAROCLINIC ZONE). INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A STEADY AND LINEAR DECLINE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS. DESPITE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS THE LACK OF RECENT SCATTEROMETRY AND THE COMING STRETCHING OF THE WINDFIELDS BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MAKE FOR CONSIDERABLY LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND RADII.GUIDANCE HAS CRYSTALLIZED REGARDING TY SURIGAE?S TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA TROPICAL CYCLONE SHORTLY PAST 120H. THE GFS SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DECAPITATION SCENARIO, HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE WESTERLIES AND RESULTS IN A MEANDERING LOW LEVEL VORTEX. THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE A MODEL OUTLIER. A MORE STANDARD CASE OF ABSORPTION INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TRANSITION TO A MID-LATITUDE LOW IS BECOMING MORE CONVINCING. ASIDE FROM GFS, PHASE-BASED GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING THE TRANSITION TO A COLD CORE. BASED ON THE PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS BASED ON THE EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION SCENARIO, ALBEIT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN DESIRED GIVEN THE RECENT OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE OF THE GFS MODEL. THE HEARTENING NEWS IS THAT EVEN IF THE GFS SOLUTION DOES MANIFEST, THE LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL VORTEX WILL BE SO WEAK AND FAR FROM LAND AS TO BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. THE JTWC TRACK STAYS VERY TIGHT WITH CONSENSUS THROUGH 72H, THEN IS HEDGED A LITTLE EQUATORWARD OF CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND JGSM SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS THAT OF A TEXT-BOOK MID- LATITUDE TRANSITION AND IS SUPPORTED BY ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. BEGINNING NEAR TAU 72 (25/00Z) THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AND THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE ON INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. A BRIEF BUMP IN INTENSITY WILL OCCUR AS IT FUSES WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BECOMES A VIGOROUS STORM FORCE LOW WHILE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO.

02W(SURIGAE). 22/00UTC.

02W(SURIGAE). 21/2143UTC. DMSP VISIBLE.

02W(SURIGAE). OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(OHC) SUPPORT IS RUNNING OUT.

29S(JOBO). WARNING 3 ISSUED AT 22/03UTC.THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING AND MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE THIS MODERATE VWS AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER VERY FAVORABLE 29 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC JOBO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE LOWER AND MORE FAVORABLE VWS AFTER 24H, CONTINUED CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL HINDER INTENSIFICATION. OF NOTE, THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT TC JOBO WILL INTENSIFY JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS SCENARIO IS CAPTURED IN THE MESOSCALE HWRF SOLUTION NEAR 96H; HOWEVER, IT IS NOT REFLECTED IN ANY OTHER MEMBERS OF THE ICNW CONSENSUS. 29S (JOBO) WILL MOVE ASHORE OVER MOZAMIBIQUE JUST AFTER 96H AND SUBSEQUENTLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY 120H.

29S(JOBO).MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT AND IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, INDICATING A SLOW TRACK TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST.

29S(JOBO). 22/04UTC.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS THAT THE STORM IS STRUGGLING TO FURTHER DEVELOP AND HAS ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TROUGH AXIS.

29S(JOBO). 24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 5.4 m/s (10.5 kts)Direction : 306.7deg Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: FAVOURABLE OVER 24H .

22/06UTC. THE JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 02W(SURIGAE AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 29S(JOBO). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.