TY 02W(SURIGAE), CAT1, has entered a high vertical wind shear zone// 29S(JOBO): recent convective bloom observed, 23/03utc update

29S(JOBO). 23/03UTC. 9H LOOP. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID UPS AND DOWNS. A RECENT BLOOM HAS BEEN OBSERVED APPRX 575KM SOUTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM/TANZANIA. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.

02W(SURIGAE). WARNING 39 ISSUED AT 23/03UTC.TY 02W (SURIGAE) IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST EXPECTATIONS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CROSS SECTION DATA VERIFIES A SURGE IN DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WHICH IS WRAPPING TOWARDS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS SHEARED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC, BUT THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX REMAINS INTACT.TY SURIGAE HAS TRACKED INTO A ZONE OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FALLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT MOVES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE NEAR TERM, TWO SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT TY 02W. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ALTER THE STEERING OR BAROTROPIC CORE OF THE SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE LLCC TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 36H WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEGIN TRACKING INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A SECOND, MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE SYSTEM NEAR 48H AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY 72H, TY 02W IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT AS IT TRACKS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC AS VIGOROUS GALE FORCE MID-LATITUDE LOW.

02W(SURIGAE). MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO INCREASINGLY BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS, BUT THERE CONTINUE TO BE VARIATIONS IN THE ALONG TRACK SPEEDS AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, PLACING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF ETT COMPLETION.

02W(SURIGAE). 23/0035UTC. GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PGTW, RJTD, AND RCTP SATELLITE FIXES. THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, INDICATING AN INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC CLOUD SHIELD.

02W(SURIGAE). 23/0250UTC.

02W(SURIGAE). TY SURIGAE HAS TRACKED INTO A ZONE OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FALLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT MOVES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.

29S(JOBO). WARNING 5 ISSUED AT 23/03UTC. BOTH ENHANCED INFRARED AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SHOW A CONVECTIVE BLOOM OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS EASED SIGNIFICANTLY (BELOW 15 KTS). THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE RECENT ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW AND SUPPORTED BY AN ADT VALUE OF 49 KNOTS. TC 29S IS POSITIONED DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE SPINE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEPICTED ON THE 221200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29 DEGREES CELSIUS ALONG THE ENTIRETY OF THE TRACK. ALTHOUGH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ABUNDANT MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS ALONG THE STORMS BEARING INDICATE A LAYER OF DRY AREA BETWEEN 3 AND 10 FT THAT WILL STIFLE ANY MAJOR SURGES IN INTENSIFICATION. ONCE TC JOBO MAKES LANDFALL, IT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND.

29S(JOBO). MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 29S WILL TRACK STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF DAR ES SALEM, TANZANIA.

29S(JOBO). 23/0118UTC. CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST 12HOURS.

29S(JOBO). 22/2206UTC. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.

29S(JOBO).29S(JOBO). 24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 5.4 m/s (10.4 kts)Direction : 281.9deg Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: FAVOURABLE OVER 24H .