TS 01W relocated and peaking within 24 hours// 2003utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TS 01W.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DAYTIME WANING AND INITIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 192242Z METOP-C AND 192329Z METOP-B FULL-COVERAGE ASCAT PASSES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT DATA, AND IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH RECENT PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING BASED ON A RELOCATION OF THE PREVIOUS STORM POSITION APPROXIMATELY 70 NM TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 01W WILL TURN FROM A NORTHWESTWARD TO A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS FROM LOW- TO MID-LAYER RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST TO A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INCLUDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HIGH SST, AND RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INGEST A DRIER SUBTROPICAL AIR MASS FROM TAU 24 ONWARD. DISSIPATION TO BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS BY TAU 96 IS ANTICIPATED UNDER THESE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR-TERM FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASINGLY WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 24. NAVGEM IS THE SOLE OUTLIER IN TERMS OF TRACK ORIENTATION, INDICATING A TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE LIKELY DUE TO STRONG INTENSIFICATION IN THE MODEL ON THE CURRENT RUN. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING, SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK. ASIDE FROM THE LATEST NAVGEM SOLUTION, GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE DYNAMIC MODELS, INCLUDING HWRF AND COAMPS-TC, REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST TREND. SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHER INTENSITIES, WHICH REMAINS AS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME IF THE SYSTEM VERY QUICKLY ORGANIZES OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND MODIFIES THE ENVIRONMENT SIGNIFICANTLY TO WARD OFF THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF INCREASING SHEAR AND DRIER AIR ENTRAINMENT. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND CURRENT STARTING POINT AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM, A LONGER SURVIVAL OF THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME. CONFIDENCES IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE MEDIUM BASED ON MARGINAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHIFTING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION TREND, RESPECTIVELY.

192329Z METOP-B FULL-COVERAGE ASCAT PASS

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INGEST A DRIER SUBTROPICAL AIR MASS FROM TAU 24 ONWARD. DISSIPATION TO BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS BY TAU 96 IS ANTICIPATED UNDER THESE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS.