TD 01W(DUJUAN) 30Knots and TC 21S(GUAMBE) 65Knots/CAT1. 20/02 09utc updates

20/06UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 01W(DUJUAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 21S(GUAMBE). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR 01W AND 21S.

01W(DUJUAN). WARNING 13 ISSUED AT 20/09UTC. ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM (29-30C) ALONG-TRACK SST AND STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, THE WARM MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE TD IS OVERRUNNING THE COLD NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THIS COMBINATION IS FUELING THE EXPLOSIVE DEEP MAIN CONVECTION EVEN THOUGH IT IS DISPLACED BY HIGH (30KT) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE NET EFFECT IS AN OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE IS LODGED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A COL BETWEEN THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST IS NOW TERMINATED AT TAU 48 IN ANTICIPATION OF AN EARLIER DISSIPATION.TD 01W WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST ASSUMES STEERING, MAKING LANDFALL OVER LEYTE, PHILIPPINES, AFTER 36H. THE HARSH ENVIRONMENT, MOSTLY DUE TO THE STRONG WIND SHEAR, WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE TD TO 25KNOTS BY 12H. AFTERWARD, AS THE STORM MOTION BECOMES MORE IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW AND AS THE NORTHEAST COLD SURGE ABATES, THE WIND SHEAR WILL RELAX A BIT AND ALLOW A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 30KNOTS BY 24H. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE TD TO DISSIPATION BY 48H.

01W(DUJUAN). NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY TO 445KM+ BY 48H. THIS, PLUS THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION, LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.

01W(DUJUAN) . 20/06UTC.

21S(GUAMBE).20/06UTC. INTENSITY HAS DECREASED FROM 85/CAT2 TO 65KNOTS/CAT1 OVER 12HOURS. THE COMPACT SYSTEM HAS LOST ITS EYE FEATURE.DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THE STORM, IT IS LIKELY THAT LOCAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT HAS DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST IT WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. TC 21S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TC 21S WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. THEREAFTER, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE IN MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TRANSITIONS TO A HURRICANE FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TAKES ON FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48H, WITH INCREASING ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER.

21S(GUAMBE). 20/06UTC.