TC 23P(FILI) peaked near Typhoon intensity// Invest 95W: up-graded to Medium//Invest 94W off the map, 06/06utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 23P(FILI).

06/0550UTC.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO AN EARLIER TIME OF PEAK INTENSITY AND LOWER VALUE OF THAT PEAK. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE FILI WILL CONTINUE FIGHTING THE EFFECTS OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WHILE REMAINING ON ITS SOUTHEASTWARD AND TERMINAL LEG. IT WILL BENEFIT FROM ANOTHER OF 12 TO 18 HOURS OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT AT THE SAME TIME WILL BE TRACKING INTO A REGION OF SLOWLY COOLING SEA WATERS. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL BE NEAR 26C BY 36H. STEADY STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF NEW CALEDONIA BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM TO THE ISLAND WILL DRAW NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE EASTERLIES OVER THE ISLAND AND PILE UP SEAS ALONG THE EAST COAST. BY 36H THE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY AND BY 72H AT THE LATEST, THE VORTEX WILL BE COMPLETELY DEVOID OF CONVECTION AND MEANDERING IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC. DURING THAT TIME A MIGRATORY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE TASMAN SEA WILL DRIVE EASTERLIES ALONG THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE INDUCED VORTICITY WILL SUSTAIN THE REMNANT VORTEX.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: JUST WHEN THE PARTY WAS GETTING GOING AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FILI CROSSED 55KTS AND DEVELOPED A BROAD AND SYMMETRIC FIELD OF DEEP CONVECTION, A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOWED UP PREMATURELY AND CRASHED THE PARTY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT A TONGUE OF DRY AIR FROM THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE WRAPPED AROUND THE EQUATORWARD SEMICIRCLE AND MADE IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE CORE. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ISOLATED AND CHOKED OFF AND ADT RAW VALUES ARE FALLING PRECIPITOUSLY. FILI HAD ANOTHER 24 HOURS OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AHEAD BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM HAS TOPPED OUT. A 052151Z PASS DOES CONFIRM GALE FORCE WINDS HAD REACHED THE NORTHERN TIP OF NEW CALEDONIA AND ON THE SYNOPTIC HOUR THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAKS WERE ALL IN THE 3.5 TO 4.0 RANGE, WITH SATCON AND ADT BOTH ASSESSING NEARLY 60KTS. IT WAS ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AFTER THAT WHEN THE DRY AIR KICKED DOWN THE DOOR, SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY REFLECTS THE LOWEST OF THE ASSESSMENTS, T3.5 FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. TC 28P IS TRACKING THROUGH THE LAST OF THE 28C SEA WATERS AND BEGINNING TO NEAR 26C BY TAU 24. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS EASED TO BELOW 20KTS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ROBUST OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD RATHER THAN FOCUSED DURING THE LAST RUN BUT THEY ALL TELL THE SAME STORY. SPEED OF ADVANCE IS CONSISTENT BUT THERE IS MORE EAST TO WEST SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE EUROPEAN PACKAGE IS THE MOST WESTWARD WHILE THE NAVGEM AND AFUM ARE THE FURTHEST EASTWARD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST STAYS TO THE EAST OF THE MEAN AND CLOSER TO THE GFS BASED ON THE GFS PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH PUTS THE TRACK A LITTLE CLOSER TO NEW CALEDONIA. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FLAT THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN BEGINS A STEADY DECLINE AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE JTWC FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THE JTWC FORECAST IS ANOTHER 5 KNOTS BELOW THE MEAN.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 149.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.8N 148E, APPROXIMATELY 1290 KM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 060012Z PARTIAL ASCAT METOP-B PASS DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING IN TO CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED DUE TO STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 95W WILL CONTINUE TRACK WEST AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

060012Z PARTIAL ASCAT METOP-B PASS DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING IN TO CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).

GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 95W WILL CONTINUE TRACK WEST AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 128E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GFS