TC 22S(HALIMA):CAT 4 US:forecast to reach Super Typhoon/Cyclone intensity within 12h//21S(CHARLOTTE):subtropical//Invest 92W, 25/15utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 22S(HALIMA). SATELLITE BULLETINS ON THE REMNANTS OF TC 21S(CHARLOTTE) WERE DISCONTINUED AT 25/0540UTC.

25/15UTC.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE, THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 130 KNOTS. THIS REPRESENTS A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE 125 KNOT PEAK DISCUSSED IN THE 250000Z PROGNOSTIC REASONING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 22S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STEERING RIDGE THROUGH 36H. DUE TO HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 12H WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS/CAT 4 US AT 12H. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO PEAK HIGHER WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE. AFTER 36H, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) INCREASES TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH THE APPROACH OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SYSTEM. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, TC 22S WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD THEN EASTWARD THROUGH 96H AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE EVOLVING FLOW BETWEEN THE EASTWARD-PROPAGATING, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SHIFTING STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER 72H, A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND PRODUCING A SLOWER, MORE ERRATIC TRACK. TC HALIMA WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IT TRACKS UNDER UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WITH WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SST VALUES. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AS THE SYSTEM STALLS OVER 26-27C WATER, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE WESTERLIES WEAKEN WHICH MAY ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO RE-STRENGTHEN OR AT LEAST MAINTAIN STORM-FORCE WINDS.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TC 22S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED (35 KNOTS) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 85 KNOTS AT 241200Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 19KM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, AND SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE RANGED FROM T6.0 TO T6.5 (115 TO 127 KNOTS) WITH THE EYE TEMPERATURE WARMING UP TO +4C FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE COOLING TO -13C. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO FLUCTUATED SIGNIFICANTLY AND NOW APPEAR TO BE COOLING AGAIN. THUS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES CLOSER TO A 251315Z AI-ENHANCED ADT ESTIMATE OF 118 KNOTS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 72H LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER 72H REFLECTING A LIKELY STALL AND ERRATIC MOTION AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THUS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE NO LONGER INDICATES RAPID INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, THE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE STILL INDICATES MODERATE INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HWRF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO COOL UPWELLING WATER EVIDENT IN THE HWRF SST FIELDS, HOWEVER, THIS SCENARIO APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE SYSTEM IS ON THE CUSP OF INTENSIFYING FURTHER AND THERE HAS BEEN NO APPARENT WEAKENING THUS FAR. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE STEADY WEAKENING TREND IN THE LATER TAUS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HWRF WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM EQUATORWARD EARLIER AND REINTENSIFIES THE SYSEM TO 100+