TC 16P(KEVIN) forecast to mimic the track of TC 15P(JUDY), Port Vila under potential threat once again// 0203utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6 HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 15P(JUDY) AND TC 16P(KEVIN). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON THE REMNANTS OF TC 11S(FREDDY).

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 15P (JUDY) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AS IT PROGRESSES ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. AS 15P TRANSITS POLEWARD, IT WILL BE IN AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGER VWS, AND INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, THESE FACTORS WILL CONSPIRE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO AROUND 70 KTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ITS SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) AND A FURTHER DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO 55 KTS IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE 26 C ISOTHERM. BY TAU 36, 15P WILL CONTINUE ITS STT AND WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHWEST BEING WRAPPED INTO THE CENTER. BY TAU 48, 15P WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO AROUND 50 KTS AND BECOME FULLY SUBTROPICAL.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPING LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES EXPOSED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A MUCH NEEDED 012207Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALED A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH TWO PRIMARY FIELDS OF HIGHER WINDS TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED NATURE IN MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ALL AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND CIMSS AUTOMATED ESTIMATES REFLECTING T5.5-T6.0 RANGE DUE TO CONSTRAINTS WHILE THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CLOSER TO 90 KTS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 15P WILL TRANSIT POLEWARD OF THE STR AND BY TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. THERE IS A SLIGHT SPREAD IN MODEL OUTPUT BY TAU 48 RESULTING IN AN OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS INDICATING A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 16P (KEVIN) IS FORECAST TO MIMIC THE TRACK OF TC 15P (JUDY). AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRANSITION ITS STEERING INFLUENCE TO THE STR TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND VIGOROUS OUTFLOW ALOFT NEGLIGIBLY AFFECTED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR. THESE FACTORS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN 16P TO 95 KTS AND LIKELY HIGHER, EVENTUALLY PEAKING NEAR TAU 60. AS 16P CONTINUES POLEWARD OF THE STR NEAR TAU 72, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO CLIMB, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE 26 C ISOTHERM, THESE FACTORS HERALD THE START OF SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION (STT). OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS, THESE FACTORS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 96 AFTER WHICH TC 16P IS FORECAST TO BE FULLY SUB-TROPICAL.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPING DEEP CONVECTION AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 012206Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS A SLIGHTLY NORTH-SOUTH ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH THE HIGHER WINDS (45-52KTS) SOLELY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY OBSCURED NATURE OF THE LLCC IN MSI AND LACK OF NEW MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND CIMSS ADT WHICH BOTH INDICATE 45-50KTS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NVGM TO THE NORTH AND HWRF TO THE SOUTH, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ALL REMAINING MEMBERS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS AND THE BULK OF THE MODELS SHOWING SHARP INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 60 AFTER WHICH ALL MEMBERS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TWO EXCEPTIONS TO THIS TREND ARE HWRF AND GFS WHICH SHOW A MUCH SLOWER INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 60 AND PEAK NEAR OR BELOW 85 KTS. FOR THESE REASONS THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.