TC 16P(KEVIN) CAT 2 US intensifying tracking over Vanuatu//TC 15P(JUDY) subtropical //Remnants of TC 11S(FREDDY)//0309utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6 HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 16P(KEVIN). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON STC 15P(JUDY) AND THE REMNANTS OF TC 11S(FREDDY).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE SYSTEM THAT HAS FURTHER DEEPENED WITH OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION AND EXPANSIVE FEEDER BANDS NOW TRAILING FROM ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 030215Z AMSR-2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST, MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

OKAnnuler

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC KEVIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105KTS BY TAU 24; AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 55KTS BY TAU 72. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 48, TC 16P WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 72, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A SUBTROPICAL LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 170NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. DUE TO VARIABILITY INTRODUCED BY SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION, THERE IS OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 26.5S 178.7W. 03MAR23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (JUDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTHWEST OF TONGA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY ERODED AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS SEVERELY SHEARED SOUTHEASTWARD, PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. SIGNIFICANT EROSION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERIES, CAUSED BY THE INTRUSION OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE MSI LOOP. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS TRANSFORMED INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 35 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KEVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 11S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.3S 382E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.0S 38.0E, APPROXIMATELY 133 NM WEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH LIMITED CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 022233Z ATMS 165GHZ MICROWAVE PASS FURTHER REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LLC FROM THE NORTHEAST. A 021930Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS REVEALS A SWATH OF 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLC. THE REMNANTS OF 11S CURRENTLY SITS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VWS, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.