TC 14S(VERNON) absorbing Invest 93S and struggling: re-intensification expected after 24h// TC 15S(ANIKA) over-land//Invest 98P, 27/15utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 14S(VERNON). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON 14S, INVEST 93S AND OVER-LAND TC 15S(ANIKA).

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC VERNON IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AFTER COMPLETING THE BINARY INTERACTION WITH 93S. AFTER 12H, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS POLEWARD, THE HIGH VWS, THEN THE INFLUX OF COOL DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AND COOLING SST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING - DOWN TO 55KTS BY 120H.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM WEAKENING DRAMATICALLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNFAVORABLE EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. A COL AREA TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER TO THE WEST HAS IMPEDED TC 14S FORWARD AND WESTWARD PROGRESSION. THE LLC EJECTED TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 271048Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE EXPOSED LLC LACK OF OBJECTIVE DATA AND REMAINS HIGHER THAN THE AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH UNFAVORABLE VWS AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF TC 14S, OFFSET BY WARM SST AND MOSTLY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AS TO WHEN THE VORTEX WILL EXIT FROM THE COL AND BEGIN ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL ALSO AFFECT THE INTENSITY FORECAST. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.