TC 07P(KIRRILY)// TC 09S// INVEST 94P updates// 0203utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS TC 07P(KIRRILY).12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON TC 09S. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON SUBTROPICAL INVEST 94P.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NOW VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND RANGE FROM 31-35 KNOTS SUSTAINED (10-MINUTE AVERAGE) WITH GUSTS 43-46 KNOTS. WHEN ADJUSTED TO A 1-MINUTE AVERAGE, THESE SUSTAINED WINDS RANGE FROM ABOUT 33-37 KNOTS. BASED ON THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, SLP VALUES AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND SHOULD TRACK INLAND AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION, DISPLACED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 012247Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A DEFINED NOTCH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE DEGRADED WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE STEERING PATTERN SETS UP. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN THE STR AND A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND COMMENCE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS UNDER A SUBTROPICAL JET. VWS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH DRY AIR ENVELOPING THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 24. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY BUT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST, WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY IN THE 40 TO 60 KNOT RANGE IN THE TAU 36 TO TAU 48 TIMEFRAME.