TC 04S(ALVARO) making landfall near Morombe/Madagascar close to Typhoon Intensity// 0115utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 04S(ALVARO).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S HAS CONSOLIDATED STEADILY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, FLIRTING WITH A RAGGED, FORMATIVE EYE AT TIMES. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BUILDING OVER AND OBSCURING THE CENTER. FORTUNATELY, A 011026Z AMSR2 37 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A CYAN RING SURROUNDING A ROUND, WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES (55-65 KNOTS) AND A 011029Z DMINT ESTIMATE OF 57 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, A 010253Z SENTINEL-1A SAR PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 59 KNOTS AND A 011026Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE REVEALED A SWATH OF 50-62 KNOTS WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE COAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE STRONG MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND SHORT-LIVED VISIBLE EYE.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: DUE TO RAPID CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM'S CORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS JTWC WARNING. ADDITIONALLY, INITIAL INTENSITIES FROM 311800Z TO 010600Z HAVE BEEN RE-EVALUATED AND REVISED HIGHER. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 04S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD AND APPROACHES THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR, WITH LANDFALL ANTICIPATED NEAR TAU 06. AFTER TAU 06, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. TC 04S WILL RE-EMERGE OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN NEAR TAU 36 WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF REINTENSIFICATION TO ABOUT 40 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 04S WILL TURN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT INTERACTS WITH STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTERS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (40 TO 55 KNOTS) AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 TO 25 C). TC 04S WILL DISSIPATE NO LATER THAN TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 96. THE 010000Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) AND THE 010600Z GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) GENERALLY INDICATE A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF REINTENSIFICATION TO 35-49 KNOTS EAST OF MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FORECAST DURING THIS PHASE OF THE JTWC FORECAST.