TC 02S(TERATAI) making a come-back// Invest 95W and Invest 93P updates, 07/22h30utc, JTWC map up-dated at 08/06utc

07/2130UTC.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THE RE-START OF WARNINGS ON TC 02S. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TERATAI) HAS RE- INTENSIFIED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND THUS JTWC IS RECOMMENCING ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. BETWEEN 071200Z AND 071800Z, THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WEAKENED TO THE POINT WHERE THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM WAS ABLE TO STACK VERTICALLY, AND CONVECTION FLARED OVER TOP OF THE LLCC. SUBSEQUENTLY, SHEAR HAS INCREASED ONCE AGAIN AS EVIDENCED BY THE VERY SHARP UPSHEAR (EASTERN) EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS, AND THE EXPOSED LLCC. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HOWEVER, THIS MODERATE SHEAR WILL COMPETE WITH, AND BE OFFSET BY, RELATIVELY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, RESULTING IN A STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH 36H. BEGINNING AROUND 36H THE OUTFLOW PATTERN SHIFTS AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONVERGENT OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MID-ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY OUT, LEADING TO WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION NO LATER THAN 48H.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CONVECTION AT ANALYSIS TIME WAS HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL AND LOCATED IN CLOSE VICINITY TO THE LLCC, HOWEVER SUBSEQUENT IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY SHARP UPSHEAR EDGE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD AND AN INCREASINGLY RAGGED, DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY. WHILE THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AS MEASURED BY A SERIES OF SCATTEROMETER PASSES BETWEEN 071145Z AND 111516Z SHOWING 30-35 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE LLCC. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW T1.5 (25-30 KTS) DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW, WHICH IS BASED SOLELY UPON THE DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL, WITH WARM (28-29C) SSTS AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSETTING MODERATE VWS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREEING ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, ENSCONCED WITHIN A 185-220KM ENVELOPE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATING A FLAT INTENSITY TREND, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7S 156.2E, APPROXIMATELY 415 KM WEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLCC (LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER) WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A 072251Z METOP-C PASS SHOWS 10-15KT WINDS AROUND A LARGE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS IN AN AREA OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY WARM SST (30-31C) AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE OUTFLOW IS NOTABLE WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW FEEDING INTO THE JET TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7S 156.2E, APPROXIMATELY 415 KM WEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLCC (LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER) WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A 072251Z METOP-C PASS SHOWS 10-15KT WINDS AROUND A LARGE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS IN AN AREA OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY WARM SST (30-31C) AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE OUTFLOW IS NOTABLE WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW FEEDING INTO THE JET TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 02S(TERATAI).