TC 01A(TAUKTAE). 15/02UTC. CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 01A IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AFTER 24HOURS. INSAT3-D. IMD. PH.
2021 MAY 15 0235UTC
REMNANTS OF TD #03W #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC May 15, 2021:
Location: 8.7°N 120.8°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
LOCATED AT 14/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 260KM SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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TC #01A #TAUKTAE #NORTHINDIAN #ARABIANSEA
WARNING 4
As of 00:00 UTC May 15, 2021:
Location: 12.6°N 72.4°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 15/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 1470 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
REMNANTS OF TD #03W #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC May 15, 2021:
Location: 8.7°N 120.8°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
LOCATED AT 14/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 260KM SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TC #01A #TAUKTAE #NORTHINDIAN #ARABIANSEA
WARNING 4
As of 00:00 UTC May 15, 2021:
Location: 12.6°N 72.4°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 15/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 1470 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TC 01A(TAUKTAE). WARNING 4 ISSUED AT 15/03UTC.UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH NEARLY RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (31C) SST VALUES. TC 01A IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72H BEFORE RECURVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 96H. DUE TO THE EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AFTER 24H WITH A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS/US CAT 3 BY 72H. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAKISTAN/INDIA BORDER WITH RAPID WEAKENING AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL.
TC 01A(TAUKTAE). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER 48H, INCREASING TO OVER 1075KM BY 96H. AFTER 96H, THE MODELS FURTHER DIVERGE WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST IS MODERATE.
TC 01A(TAUKTAE). SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A BAND OF DENSE CONVECTION SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT POSITION.
TC 01A(TAUKTAE). 14/12UTC. AVN(GFS) SHOWS PEAK INTENSTY ABOVE 100KNOTS AT +90H WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF HIGH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL.
JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 01A(TAUKTAE). FINAL WARNING ON TD 03W WAS ISSUED AT 14/21UTC. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
15/00UTC.
