Super TY 02W(SURIGAE): extreme peak intensity of 165knots(CAT 5): strongest April Super Typhoon since (at least) 1959, 18/03utc update

02W(SURIGAE). 18/01UTC. 23H ANIMATION. SUPER TYPHOON 02W REACHED AN ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY OF 165KNOTS/CAT 5 AT 17/18UTC. 02W IS THE STRONGEST SUPER TYPHOON SINCE 24W(HALONG) IN NOVEMBER 2019 WHICH ALSO PEAKED AT 165KNOTS. 02W IS THE MOST INTENSE APRIL TYPHOON WITHIN JTWC DATA SINCE AT LEAST 1959.OF NOTE SUPER TYPHOON 22W(GONI ) PEAK INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 170KNOTS IN OCTOBER 2020 BUT THE OFFICIAL BEST TRACK HAS NOT BEEN VALIDATED UP-TO NOW.

02W(SURIGAE). WARNING 19 ISSUED AT 18/03UTC.THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 150KNOTS/CAT 5 IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES AT T7.0 (140KTS) PGTW, KNES, RJTD, AND RCTP; AND THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OF T7.6/158KTS (ADT), INDICATING THE DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE(ERC). ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH CONTINUED ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. STY 02W CONTINUES TRACKING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. STY 02W IS SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BUILDS. THIS STR WILL REMAIN THE MAIN STEERING RIDGE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST. STY SURIGAE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE ERC AND DECREASES SSTS DUE TO GREATER UPWELLING. AS STY 02W APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY WILL SLOW AS IT ENTERS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW DECREASES SLIGHTLY AND SHEAR INCREASES TO THE NORTH DECREASING THE SYSTEM INTENSITY TO 85KNOTS/CAT 2 BY 72H.AFTER 72H, STY SURIGAE WILL BEGIN ITS RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, CREST THE AXIS, THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE.THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DECREASES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE, LEADING TO A NATURAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM TO 65KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 120H.

02W(SURIGAE). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN CROSS-TRACK SPREAD TO 195KM AT 48H, WITH TRACK SPREAD INCREASING TO 325KM BY72H. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID OVER BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THE SLOW PROGRESSION DURING THE WEAK STEERING SEGMENT. AFTER 72H THE CROSS-TRACK ERROR DIVERGES MORE AT THE APEX OF THE AXIS TO 450KM. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE CLUSTERED CLOSER AND REMAIN IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA WITH NO MODEL MEMBER TRACKING TOWARD LUZON. THE CROSS TRACK SPREAD NOW DECREASES TO 610KM BY 120H, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.

02W(SURIGAE). 17/00UTC.

02W(SURIGAE). 17/2211UTC.A MOAT BEGAN TO FORM ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL INDICATED ON THIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, FURTHER EVIDENCED BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE(ERC) ON THE CIMSS M-PERC MODEL.

02W(SURIGAE).16/18UTC.CURRENT BEST TRACK(BEFORE RE-ANALYSIS) WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 95KNOTS. 0221041618 100N1321E 115 0221041700 107N1311E 120 0221041706 113N1302E 140 0221041712 120N1292E 155 0221041718 126N1284E 165 0221041800 132N1277E 150

18/03UTC. THE JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 02W(SURIGAE) AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS.