SUPER TC 04A
Météo974
Location: 18.5°N 64.4°E
Maximum Winds: 130 kt ( 240km/h)
Gusts: 160 kt ( 300km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 928 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 64.2E.
28OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
337 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 27 NM
ROUND EYE IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDES HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE 130 KT INTENSITY IS BETWEEN
A 280856Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 132 KTS AND A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.5 (127 KTS). EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN
INTENSE SYSTEM. TC 04A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), TOWARDS A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THAT STR
AND ANOTHER TO THE WEST. JUST PRIOR TO TAU 36, THE STR TO THE WEST
WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM AND CAUSE THE TRACK TO
SHIFT GRADUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD, WHERE IT WILL REMAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AFTER THE SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT, DIMINISHED
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO WEAKEN,
REACHING ABOUT 75 KTS BY TAU 120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND GALWEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE SINCE THE USUAL
INTENSITY AIDS DO NOT FOLLOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND,
THEREFORE, THEIR INTENSITIES ARE UNLIKELY TO BE REPRESENTATIVE.
THERE ARE TWO OUTLIERS THIS CYCLE, NAVGEM TO THE NORTH AND UKMET TO
THE EAST. THE REMAINING MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS LOW CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD BUT DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD SPEED MAKE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
HIGH. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN
M974World
NORTH INDIANLocation: 18.5°N 64.4°E
Maximum Winds: 130 kt ( 240km/h)
Gusts: 160 kt ( 300km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 928 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 64.2E.
28OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
337 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 27 NM
ROUND EYE IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDES HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE 130 KT INTENSITY IS BETWEEN
A 280856Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 132 KTS AND A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.5 (127 KTS). EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN
INTENSE SYSTEM. TC 04A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), TOWARDS A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THAT STR
AND ANOTHER TO THE WEST. JUST PRIOR TO TAU 36, THE STR TO THE WEST
WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM AND CAUSE THE TRACK TO
SHIFT GRADUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD, WHERE IT WILL REMAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AFTER THE SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT, DIMINISHED
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO WEAKEN,
REACHING ABOUT 75 KTS BY TAU 120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND GALWEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE SINCE THE USUAL
INTENSITY AIDS DO NOT FOLLOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND,
THEREFORE, THEIR INTENSITIES ARE UNLIKELY TO BE REPRESENTATIVE.
THERE ARE TWO OUTLIERS THIS CYCLE, NAVGEM TO THE NORTH AND UKMET TO
THE EAST. THE REMAINING MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS LOW CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD BUT DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD SPEED MAKE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
HIGH. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO DECREASE FASTER AFTER 36H
28/1230UTC DMSP
28/12UTC
28/1056UTC. DMSP
28/0854UTC NPP
28/06UTC
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
HWRF: 130KTS AT +0H
