South Indian Ocean: two Suspect Areas under close watch, TCFA issued for Invest 93S, Update 31/00UTC

2020 DEC 31 03UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
INVEST #93S
UPDATE: TCFA
As of 00:00 UTC Dec 31, 2020:
Location: 13.0°S 84.6°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
HIGH
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
ABIO10 PGTW 302200
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 87.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 85.5E, APPROXIMATELY 1250
KM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 301531Z MHS 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DETACHED FROM MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 301532Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
INVEST 93S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (>25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

--------------------------------------------- NEAR 10.4S 70.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 72.6E, APPROXIMATELY 530
KM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 301424Z MHS 89 GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 301626Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
INVEST 96S IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-25 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL SLOWLY
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.