11/1624UTC. ASCAT REVEALED A WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1500KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF DIÉGO GARCIA AT 11/18UTC.
2021 JAN 11 1945UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
INVEST #99S
As of 18:00 UTC Jan 11, 2021:
Location: 11.8°S 85.6°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
LOW
ABIO10 PGTW 111800
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.0S 86.0E, APPROXIMATELY 1190 KM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111623Z METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS DISORGANINZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INVEST 99S IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY
STRONG (25-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL TRACK WEST AND INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
2021 JAN 11 1945UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
INVEST #99S
As of 18:00 UTC Jan 11, 2021:
Location: 11.8°S 85.6°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
LOW
ABIO10 PGTW 111800
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.0S 86.0E, APPROXIMATELY 1190 KM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111623Z METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS DISORGANINZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INVEST 99S IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY
STRONG (25-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL TRACK WEST AND INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
11/12UTC. ECMWF TRACKS THE INVEST AREA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
11/12UTC. GFS(RED) TRACKS IT TOO.
11/18UTC
