South Indian: Invest 96S: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

INVEST 96S  SOUTH INDIAN
As of 12:00 UTC Dec 27, 2019:
Location: 12.1°S 55.7°E
Maximum Winds: 25/30 kt
WTXS21 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5S 55.4E TO 16.8S 57.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 271200Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 55.7E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.3S 54.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 55.7E, APPROXIMATELY 508
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TROUGHING WITH SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE
TROUGH AXIS. A 271230Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
GENERAL LACK OF CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE EAST. A 270514Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS TROUGHING FLANKED
BY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. 96S IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTENSIFY TO THE WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281500Z.//
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